* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 29 25 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 29 25 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 26 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 16 16 18 17 14 11 14 9 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 6 5 3 0 3 0 3 7 7 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 205 202 193 193 173 163 127 123 106 99 112 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 115 114 114 115 114 112 111 111 111 109 109 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 56 52 48 45 37 35 30 29 26 25 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 51 36 28 44 51 59 57 64 51 66 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 13 14 0 -4 14 23 23 20 4 20 16 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 5 0 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 936 982 1027 1063 1101 1170 1208 1230 1245 1267 1274 1274 1274 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.4 117.0 117.6 118.2 118.7 119.5 119.8 120.0 120.1 120.3 120.4 120.4 120.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -12. -14. -17. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -10. -13. -19. -25. -30. -33. -35. -36. -35. -35. -35. -36. -37. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.0 116.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##