* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 51 60 73 85 85 82 77 69 61 54 46 39 32 25 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 51 60 73 85 85 82 77 69 61 54 46 39 32 25 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 44 47 56 65 70 70 66 60 54 49 43 37 31 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 10 11 14 9 14 11 12 9 6 5 4 3 4 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 5 0 0 -2 -3 0 5 3 0 0 2 -1 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 6 8 20 20 6 358 76 80 78 97 76 81 103 97 137 153 115 SST (C) 30.1 30.4 30.4 29.7 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.1 26.3 25.4 24.3 23.4 22.7 22.0 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 169 169 162 154 151 146 143 138 132 124 114 103 93 86 79 73 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.1 -51.4 -52.1 -50.8 -51.8 -50.7 -51.7 -50.6 -51.4 -50.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 89 88 87 86 86 86 84 80 78 73 71 67 61 57 49 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 21 24 25 30 28 28 27 24 21 18 15 11 8 4 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -10 -24 -8 15 3 23 29 64 57 72 60 56 32 20 16 21 200 MB DIV 153 130 131 109 111 136 147 113 152 76 36 8 -2 0 -6 -19 -20 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -8 -7 -6 -8 -3 -5 0 0 -2 -3 0 -1 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 507 487 469 442 414 394 391 399 410 421 417 378 312 250 188 117 58 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.7 102.4 103.1 103.9 104.6 105.9 107.0 107.8 108.4 108.9 109.3 109.8 110.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 8 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 46 60 72 53 31 17 11 9 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 62.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 24. 22. 20. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 12. 12. 12. 7. 3. -1. -5. -7. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 25. 38. 50. 50. 47. 42. 34. 26. 19. 11. 4. -3. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.6 101.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.94 9.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.29 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.90 7.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -39.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.96 -7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.53 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.54 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.62 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 39.3% 26.6% 20.8% 15.0% 29.6% 39.5% 44.1% Logistic: 10.8% 52.5% 30.0% 18.0% 4.3% 45.0% 51.4% 20.3% Bayesian: 11.7% 55.0% 67.9% 34.0% 3.4% 53.3% 65.5% 79.0% Consensus: 12.4% 48.9% 41.5% 24.3% 7.6% 42.6% 52.1% 47.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##