* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 81 72 64 57 45 35 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 81 72 64 57 45 35 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 80 72 64 57 45 35 28 24 21 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 18 20 19 14 5 10 8 10 9 12 9 10 6 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 7 8 6 8 7 6 1 4 1 2 3 7 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 169 196 196 211 219 218 198 164 167 146 148 134 124 137 122 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.1 25.4 25.9 26.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 129 127 122 118 115 115 115 113 112 111 114 119 124 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 70 68 63 61 55 50 43 37 32 31 29 29 27 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 23 23 22 20 17 15 13 11 8 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 78 74 85 97 103 64 57 49 41 32 36 29 37 29 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 40 34 17 3 8 6 -3 0 14 14 -4 -26 -12 -17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 2 0 0 1 5 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 -1 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 794 795 801 817 838 914 998 1073 1155 1220 1286 1354 1430 1515 1600 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.4 16.1 15.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.4 113.9 114.5 115.0 116.2 117.3 118.4 119.4 120.1 120.8 121.4 122.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -21. -26. -31. -34. -38. -40. -42. -44. -46. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -6. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -13. -18. -21. -24. -24. -24. -23. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -26. -33. -45. -55. -63. -68. -73. -77. -78. -79. -80. -78. -78. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.3 112.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.08 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.06 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 330.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##