* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 71 74 78 78 76 67 58 46 39 31 25 19 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 68 71 74 78 78 76 67 58 46 39 31 25 19 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 68 70 71 72 71 68 62 53 43 36 31 27 24 20 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 6 7 11 12 12 19 11 8 6 12 18 19 10 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 4 2 -1 0 2 6 11 7 4 0 -2 2 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 251 232 222 139 165 169 174 187 217 185 167 158 155 160 169 135 137 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 27.9 27.1 26.8 26.3 25.6 25.1 24.7 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.6 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 149 148 141 132 129 124 117 111 106 104 103 103 104 104 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 70 68 65 67 65 66 66 59 54 47 42 36 30 28 31 32 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 27 27 30 29 31 29 27 22 19 16 13 11 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 21 29 34 49 55 60 83 92 106 87 64 54 56 67 68 55 77 200 MB DIV 45 67 27 88 100 67 45 45 28 -12 22 1 24 13 -2 -29 14 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -8 -4 0 -2 0 0 2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 683 708 735 759 786 772 747 728 725 760 803 843 873 893 913 926 947 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.4 18.6 18.6 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.1 110.5 111.0 111.4 112.3 113.0 113.8 114.6 115.5 116.3 117.0 117.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 19 22 23 13 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 3. 2. 4. 3. 0. -6. -10. -13. -16. -17. -17. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 13. 11. 2. -7. -19. -26. -34. -40. -46. -49. -52. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.1 109.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.51 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.58 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.55 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.60 -5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 8.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.34 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.7% 40.6% 36.4% 29.0% 20.6% 21.3% 14.5% 9.8% Logistic: 8.7% 16.2% 7.2% 3.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 4.0% 10.9% 5.2% 1.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.1% 22.5% 16.3% 11.6% 7.4% 7.6% 4.9% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/07/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##