* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 52 57 64 74 78 79 72 67 58 50 43 37 30 23 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 52 57 64 74 78 79 72 67 58 50 43 37 30 23 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 47 48 53 59 63 63 61 56 47 40 35 31 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 4 3 3 3 5 5 8 13 10 6 9 15 20 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 6 4 2 0 7 9 7 3 8 8 7 1 -1 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 283 284 297 312 328 348 50 121 148 167 197 189 169 146 148 162 162 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.3 25.8 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.2 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 154 154 153 151 147 140 137 131 124 119 114 111 108 101 97 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -50.7 -50.8 -50.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 72 71 66 66 64 64 55 49 43 37 33 29 24 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 22 24 25 26 32 32 33 30 29 25 21 18 15 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 -2 8 16 25 55 74 94 108 134 123 105 99 91 88 86 200 MB DIV 116 129 113 65 26 35 88 52 54 28 6 -11 -16 -1 2 -5 10 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -9 -7 -6 -9 -3 -2 0 0 2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 635 657 684 717 753 827 891 891 889 889 911 944 970 987 1032 1083 1144 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.2 108.8 109.4 110.0 111.1 112.1 113.0 113.9 114.8 115.7 116.7 117.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 31 26 23 23 24 26 22 11 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. 18. 17. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 13. 16. 12. 11. 5. 0. -4. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 24. 35. 38. 39. 32. 27. 18. 10. 3. -3. -10. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.2 107.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.81 10.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.80 8.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.68 7.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 -7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.48 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.25 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.37 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 48% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 43.1% 36.8% 27.1% 16.8% 43.7% 48.5% 43.2% Logistic: 18.5% 58.4% 39.0% 29.0% 4.8% 31.1% 5.8% 2.4% Bayesian: 16.3% 30.9% 22.8% 10.2% 1.1% 6.0% 1.5% 0.1% Consensus: 16.8% 44.1% 32.9% 22.1% 7.5% 26.9% 18.6% 15.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/06/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##