* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/29/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 23 24 25 28 31 37 38 40 41 41 41 40 38 37 39 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 14 16 15 10 8 11 19 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -1 -2 -3 3 1 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 196 193 190 187 172 160 208 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.6 26.8 25.6 15.0 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 130 133 133 123 112 71 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 112 114 114 106 97 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -55.0 -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 -0.5 -1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 9 11 4 8 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 62 62 65 70 72 74 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 17 16 15 12 12 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 39 43 13 -6 30 54 110 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 6 31 37 40 36 30 92 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 17 8 -3 16 -13 16 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -145 -258 -379 -526 -675 -973 -940 -926 -875 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.7 32.9 34.1 35.5 36.8 39.8 43.0 46.2 49.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.7 87.0 87.3 87.4 87.5 86.9 85.1 82.6 80.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 16 18 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -7. -7. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 6. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 13. 12. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.7 86.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/29/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.33 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.50 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.54 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.57 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.81 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.57 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 7.4% 5.5% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.2% 2.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/29/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/29/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 26 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 23 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT