* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/27/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 42 44 50 57 58 56 54 55 53 49 49 50 50 51 V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 42 44 50 57 36 30 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 38 39 43 49 34 29 27 28 29 30 30 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 19 14 8 4 7 8 7 14 4 4 7 7 11 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 3 -2 -3 1 1 2 2 7 3 2 -2 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 234 207 165 162 341 220 208 238 232 180 154 264 227 242 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.9 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.8 28.1 27.7 27.7 26.6 25.5 22.2 20.1 19.9 14.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 136 135 130 127 133 137 133 133 120 110 88 80 79 68 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 123 121 115 111 114 117 113 113 102 93 78 72 71 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.4 -53.7 -53.6 -52.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -55.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 8 7 10 5 11 4 9 1 5 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 67 66 62 62 60 57 60 68 71 69 70 72 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 20 22 22 23 25 22 18 15 15 15 13 14 16 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 59 63 88 93 78 75 36 26 -12 6 8 52 104 126 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 7 -11 24 17 16 26 33 11 25 50 34 41 26 40 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 13 6 5 2 3 4 9 1 19 39 0 20 -4 -11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 120 233 289 270 246 140 10 -162 -376 -633 -824 -795 -638 -455 -387 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.6 25.7 26.6 27.5 28.8 30.3 32.1 34.1 36.4 38.6 40.6 42.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.8 84.8 84.9 85.2 85.5 86.3 86.9 87.4 87.5 87.2 86.1 84.1 81.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 24 17 7 5 6 6 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 11 CX,CY: 2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 16. 14. 12. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 2. -4. -9. -9. -11. -13. -13. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 15. 22. 23. 21. 19. 20. 18. 14. 14. 15. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.4 84.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/27/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.50 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.34 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.74 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.82 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.54 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.24 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 13.6% 9.3% 6.5% 3.3% 7.8% 10.1% 14.1% Logistic: 1.8% 7.8% 5.2% 0.8% 0.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 7.1% 4.8% 2.5% 1.1% 3.0% 3.8% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/27/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/27/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 39 42 44 50 57 36 30 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 42 48 55 34 28 26 26 27 28 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 42 49 28 22 20 20 21 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 33 40 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT