* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/26/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 46 50 58 61 59 59 60 60 56 53 52 47 44 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 44 46 50 58 41 31 28 27 28 29 30 30 30 32 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 42 46 36 29 28 27 28 29 30 30 30 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 28 21 14 11 2 6 10 13 14 10 12 9 21 23 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 4 0 -4 7 -1 1 3 3 0 -3 -3 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 245 232 228 196 163 56 312 275 215 244 217 235 254 271 245 241 247 SST (C) 27.4 27.9 28.1 28.1 27.8 27.7 28.6 27.9 28.0 28.0 26.8 25.4 21.8 20.1 17.8 14.3 12.6 POT. INT. (KT) 130 136 138 138 133 132 145 135 136 137 122 109 87 80 74 68 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 125 124 122 117 113 123 114 115 114 102 92 77 72 68 65 64 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.7 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.6 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 6 8 6 9 6 10 4 8 2 4 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 68 67 64 58 53 55 56 64 69 64 66 65 63 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 17 18 22 21 21 23 20 17 16 15 16 13 12 13 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 53 70 62 77 94 79 79 45 9 -34 20 -10 52 91 128 125 134 200 MB DIV 92 53 9 10 33 3 29 -10 21 30 38 32 31 18 42 23 9 700-850 TADV 16 10 4 7 6 0 7 4 6 3 11 28 31 -4 -9 -16 -3 LAND (KM) 103 205 328 325 295 184 49 -76 -263 -485 -685 -819 -730 -504 -284 -93 57 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 24.1 25.3 26.2 27.1 28.5 29.9 31.4 33.1 35.1 36.9 38.6 40.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.2 85.3 85.3 85.6 85.9 86.6 87.2 87.8 88.2 88.3 87.7 86.0 83.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 9 9 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 14 13 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 37 42 39 23 9 6 9 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 12 CX,CY: 2/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 19. 17. 15. 13. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 5. 5. 8. 6. 0. -2. -4. -3. -8. -9. -8. -10. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 15. 23. 26. 24. 24. 25. 25. 21. 18. 17. 12. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.8 85.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.30 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.32 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.54 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.82 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.58 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.34 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 12.5% 8.5% 6.0% 2.8% 7.4% 9.4% 13.6% Logistic: 0.7% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.1% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.6% 3.1% 2.0% 0.9% 2.6% 3.5% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 44 46 50 58 41 31 28 27 28 29 30 30 30 32 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 43 47 55 38 28 25 24 25 26 27 27 27 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 37 41 49 32 22 19 18 19 20 21 21 21 23 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 39 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT