* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/26/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 39 40 43 45 47 51 53 56 57 56 55 55 54 56 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 39 40 43 45 47 51 53 35 29 28 27 28 28 32 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 34 34 35 36 40 44 32 28 27 27 28 28 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 28 25 18 18 10 11 15 4 5 7 8 8 9 11 11 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -1 2 -1 -1 0 2 4 4 1 11 1 1 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 241 263 278 272 253 206 102 352 341 357 249 280 254 326 269 245 229 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.3 27.9 28.8 27.7 27.4 25.9 24.3 20.5 20.6 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 142 141 137 138 136 126 134 147 132 129 114 101 81 82 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 128 130 129 125 123 118 109 114 125 111 109 97 88 73 74 67 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.0 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 9 6 10 6 12 6 8 1 0 700-500 MB RH 70 70 68 66 64 64 61 53 56 56 56 59 62 64 67 71 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 64 62 66 68 86 102 85 92 36 13 -28 -2 28 117 151 141 200 MB DIV 65 41 53 84 68 33 1 1 18 12 17 -8 60 3 45 28 84 700-850 TADV 2 5 9 8 4 2 -3 5 1 12 7 34 72 21 38 -15 -7 LAND (KM) 173 158 124 63 117 307 364 258 148 5 -118 -325 -555 -558 -409 -169 65 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.1 20.9 21.9 22.9 25.0 26.5 27.7 28.9 30.3 31.8 33.6 35.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.8 85.6 85.5 85.4 85.3 85.5 86.2 87.0 87.6 87.9 87.9 87.3 85.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 10 10 9 7 7 7 8 8 10 12 13 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 45 46 46 44 38 50 24 5 7 9 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. 18. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 16. 18. 21. 22. 21. 20. 20. 19. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.3 85.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.10 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.51 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.54 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.82 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.45 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 13.7% 9.0% 6.3% 3.1% 7.4% 8.7% 11.3% Logistic: 1.4% 4.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.0% 3.7% 2.2% 1.1% 2.6% 3.0% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 39 40 43 45 47 51 53 35 29 28 27 28 28 32 18HR AGO 35 34 35 38 39 42 44 46 50 52 34 28 27 26 27 27 31 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 35 38 40 42 46 48 30 24 23 22 23 23 27 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 31 33 37 39 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT