* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL192017 11/08/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 52 54 57 58 47 44 41 38 35 30 26 22 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 52 54 57 58 47 44 41 38 35 30 26 22 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 52 52 51 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 22 21 20 28 37 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 2 8 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 271 274 252 241 242 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.8 19.1 19.9 12.9 11.1 10.2 9.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 80 83 71 71 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 85 74 76 69 69 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -57.2 -59.2 -60.7 -61.0 -61.5 -60.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 62 64 68 66 56 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 21 24 22 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 25 34 30 15 -32 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 26 60 94 109 81 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 39 41 33 65 81 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 980 821 690 656 711 1198 1305 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.5 40.4 42.2 44.5 46.7 51.4 56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.7 47.9 47.1 45.3 43.5 36.8 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 23 26 29 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 21 CX,CY: 0/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 794 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -21. -24. -27. -28. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -3. -8. -14. -17. -22. -27. -32. -39. -44. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 41. 42. 42. 39. 37. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 2. 1. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -20. -24. -28. -31. -36. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 38.5 48.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192017 RINA 11/08/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.15 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.72 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192017 RINA 11/08/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192017 RINA 11/08/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 52 54 57 58 47 44 41 38 35 30 26 22 19 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 51 53 56 57 46 43 40 37 34 29 25 21 18 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 51 52 41 38 35 32 29 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 44 33 30 27 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT