* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/14/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 83 83 81 76 75 65 52 42 30 27 25 22 20 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 85 84 83 83 81 76 75 65 52 42 31 28 26 23 21 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 83 82 82 81 77 65 47 37 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 13 25 33 43 47 33 22 16 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -3 -4 1 5 6 0 1 -4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 326 287 222 208 210 192 178 173 208 265 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.1 24.7 23.8 23.6 21.3 18.0 15.1 13.1 12.7 10.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 108 106 101 100 89 79 74 71 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 97 96 92 91 82 74 70 68 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.2 -56.2 -55.8 -55.8 -54.8 -54.3 -53.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.8 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 53 47 43 44 41 45 50 57 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 27 30 31 39 47 43 34 25 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 48 77 106 111 100 58 37 77 33 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 41 54 59 45 26 66 83 47 30 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 2 -11 -35 -29 -82 -114 -67 3 25 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1806 1689 1586 1464 1271 828 559 217 21 11 313 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.6 33.4 34.3 35.5 36.7 40.6 45.5 50.5 54.8 58.6 62.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 31.5 29.7 27.9 25.6 23.4 18.8 15.2 12.3 8.9 5.0 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 17 20 22 24 27 27 25 23 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 10 CX,CY: 8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 769 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -20. -30. -39. -48. -54. -58. -61. -65. -66. -68. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -2. -5. -11. -17. -18. -18. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. -21. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 14. 14. 14. 12. 10. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 11. 23. 20. 8. -3. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -6. -5. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -4. -9. -10. -20. -33. -43. -55. -58. -60. -63. -65. -68. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 32.6 31.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/14/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 458.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/14/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 9( 18) 8( 25) 5( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 84 83 83 81 76 75 65 52 42 31 28 26 23 21 17 DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 83 83 81 76 75 65 52 42 31 28 26 23 21 17 DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 81 79 74 73 63 50 40 29 26 24 21 19 15 DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 73 68 67 57 44 34 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 61 60 50 37 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 84 75 69 66 63 62 52 39 29 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 84 83 74 68 64 63 53 40 30 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS