* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/10/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 58 61 66 71 75 76 76 76 78 82 84 76 66 65 62 V (KT) LAND 50 53 58 61 66 71 75 76 76 76 78 82 84 76 66 65 62 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 57 61 65 70 71 71 70 69 71 72 67 57 47 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 11 6 6 12 12 16 13 9 12 28 52 27 24 27 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -9 -6 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 -6 -1 5 13 10 0 2 8 8 SHEAR DIR 281 303 326 312 298 21 351 347 328 301 237 210 220 157 168 164 156 SST (C) 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.1 25.3 24.6 24.2 22.5 17.9 13.6 12.9 11.5 POT. INT. (KT) 111 113 114 114 115 115 115 114 115 109 104 101 96 82 71 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 95 95 95 96 96 97 97 99 96 92 89 92 79 68 67 66 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.3 -57.3 -57.2 -56.8 -56.7 -56.1 -56.5 -55.7 -56.1 -56.0 -56.1 -55.6 -54.3 -53.7 -51.0 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.1 1.2 2.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 52 52 52 52 51 51 50 52 57 50 45 39 64 70 81 83 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 24 26 26 27 27 26 27 29 35 41 40 36 41 42 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -6 -4 0 -3 -13 -11 -17 -6 29 88 107 115 14 66 230 250 200 MB DIV -19 -19 -12 -12 2 -24 -20 -14 4 40 63 24 40 76 69 53 41 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 1 0 3 4 10 -3 -7 -37 -3 -86 -52 5 10 LAND (KM) 2141 2190 2238 2241 2208 2150 2085 1978 1848 1673 1476 1275 962 458 7 290 754 LAT (DEG N) 31.3 31.0 30.6 30.4 30.1 30.0 30.4 31.0 31.8 32.9 34.1 35.4 36.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.2 37.9 37.6 37.4 37.1 36.5 35.6 34.3 32.4 29.8 26.7 23.2 19.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 3 6 8 11 13 15 15 34 42 23 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. -3. -7. -10. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 6. 13. 21. 17. 11. 15. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 11. 16. 21. 25. 26. 26. 26. 28. 32. 34. 26. 16. 15. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 31.3 38.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/10/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.67 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.52 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.52 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 302.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.58 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 79.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.16 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 14.7% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 18.0% 11.0% 2.1% 0.9% 4.1% 3.2% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 11.0% 7.1% 0.7% 0.3% 1.4% 1.1% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/10/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/10/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 58 61 66 71 75 76 76 76 78 82 84 76 66 65 62 18HR AGO 50 49 54 57 62 67 71 72 72 72 74 78 80 72 62 61 58 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 54 59 63 64 64 64 66 70 72 64 54 53 50 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 45 50 54 55 55 55 57 61 63 55 45 44 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT