* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/10/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 51 54 59 65 72 72 73 73 77 78 79 76 76 65 65 V (KT) LAND 45 47 51 54 59 65 72 72 73 73 77 78 79 76 76 65 65 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 49 53 57 65 70 70 67 67 67 68 65 59 52 48 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 10 9 9 12 18 12 12 11 26 33 22 10 28 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -8 -7 -4 -3 0 -2 0 -8 -2 0 8 4 5 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 269 283 304 335 329 316 7 348 357 324 265 220 206 212 223 256 N/A SST (C) 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.2 25.7 25.2 24.7 23.5 21.5 20.7 18.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 111 112 114 115 115 115 114 115 112 108 105 98 88 86 80 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 92 92 93 95 96 96 96 97 99 98 95 92 89 81 78 75 N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.5 -57.3 -57.3 -57.4 -56.8 -56.6 -56.0 -56.2 -55.7 -55.7 -55.7 -56.1 -56.6 -57.5 -58.2 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 3 3 2 2 2 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 52 52 52 51 50 49 51 54 52 46 43 55 63 64 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 22 24 25 27 26 26 26 28 31 34 34 36 30 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -14 -7 -11 -6 -7 -13 -10 -1 13 68 93 99 60 45 43 N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -21 -17 -11 0 -11 -9 -46 6 18 48 47 33 30 48 55 N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 0 2 1 4 -1 -4 -32 -29 -6 -13 22 N/A LAND (KM) 2097 2138 2180 2226 2252 2183 2127 2058 1939 1784 1586 1375 1151 626 355 258 N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.6 31.3 31.0 30.7 30.3 29.9 30.1 30.6 31.3 32.3 33.4 34.7 35.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.5 38.3 38.0 37.8 37.5 36.9 36.2 35.2 33.7 31.4 28.5 25.1 21.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 6 9 12 14 15 20 21 22 28 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 3. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 4. 4. 3. 6. 9. 12. 11. 12. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 14. 20. 27. 28. 28. 28. 32. 33. 34. 31. 31. 20. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 31.6 38.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/10/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.64 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.60 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.61 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.19 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.09 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 13.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 5.9% 3.2% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 1.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.3% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/10/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/10/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 51 54 59 65 72 72 73 73 77 78 79 76 76 65 65 18HR AGO 45 44 48 51 56 62 69 69 70 70 74 75 76 73 73 62 62 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 49 55 62 62 63 63 67 68 69 66 66 55 55 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 40 46 53 53 54 54 58 59 60 57 57 46 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT