* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN AL172017 10/09/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 46 52 58 63 63 61 59 58 62 64 65 57 51 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 46 52 58 63 63 61 59 58 62 64 65 57 51 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 41 47 53 59 61 60 57 56 57 61 62 55 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 21 24 22 17 13 9 19 26 21 17 10 8 24 47 53 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -6 -7 -6 -5 -8 -4 -5 -4 -1 -2 -8 -1 3 0 0 -7 SHEAR DIR 272 275 278 285 286 298 359 4 14 17 23 51 234 234 246 243 261 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.0 24.4 23.0 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 111 112 112 112 114 114 115 116 114 112 111 108 103 93 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 93 92 93 93 93 95 95 96 98 98 96 97 97 92 82 78 200 MB T (C) -58.0 -57.8 -57.6 -57.8 -57.8 -57.6 -57.6 -57.1 -57.0 -56.8 -57.1 -57.0 -57.6 -57.8 -58.5 -58.5 -59.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 53 51 51 54 52 52 52 51 50 48 51 54 54 49 46 45 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 14 15 16 17 16 15 13 13 14 17 20 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 18 -1 -2 -5 -11 0 0 -5 -18 -13 1 10 23 40 28 -13 -23 200 MB DIV 7 12 -11 5 0 -18 -24 -4 -30 -54 0 27 38 40 59 42 4 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 1 0 3 -1 -2 -8 4 14 6 LAND (KM) 2051 2044 2037 2055 2072 2141 2214 2230 2164 2101 1996 1857 1736 1552 1390 1116 970 LAT (DEG N) 31.3 31.5 31.7 31.7 31.7 31.3 30.8 30.2 29.9 29.9 30.2 30.8 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.0 39.8 39.5 39.1 38.8 38.2 37.7 37.3 36.7 36.0 34.7 33.0 31.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 7 8 11 17 18 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. -0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -8. -14. -20. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 18. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -6. -4. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 23. 28. 28. 26. 24. 23. 27. 29. 30. 23. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.3 40.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 SEVENTEEN 10/09/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.18 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.28 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 5.0% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 1.2% 1.4% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 SEVENTEEN 10/09/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 SEVENTEEN 10/09/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 43 46 52 58 63 63 61 59 58 62 64 65 57 51 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 43 49 55 60 60 58 56 55 59 61 62 54 48 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 43 49 54 54 52 50 49 53 55 56 48 42 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 34 40 45 45 43 41 40 44 46 47 39 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT