* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL162017 10/07/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 77 82 85 85 80 72 65 49 35 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 77 82 85 85 44 32 29 30 22 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 80 86 88 85 44 32 29 30 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 14 14 17 24 28 30 48 62 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -2 0 -1 2 2 2 -6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 340 314 297 296 281 265 275 274 278 280 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.1 26.5 27.2 24.6 23.5 20.5 14.3 15.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 150 140 121 129 106 99 85 72 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 157 152 139 128 109 116 96 90 79 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -52.8 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 5 5 2 4 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 76 69 60 55 49 45 45 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 21 20 18 14 14 10 10 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 30 22 21 -10 -9 -29 -13 -33 -9 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 41 56 70 50 52 70 80 8 30 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 13 5 22 25 41 58 78 12 7 -108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 237 428 234 110 2 -338 -483 -276 -96 28 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.6 25.4 27.2 28.8 30.4 33.5 36.5 39.4 41.9 43.9 46.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.6 87.3 88.0 88.1 88.1 86.5 83.0 78.2 72.6 66.4 60.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 17 16 16 18 23 24 25 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 81 125 34 24 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 20 CX,CY: -4/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -8. -13. -17. -19. -21. -24. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -16. -24. -26. -28. -32. -34. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -8. -11. -16. -18. -16. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 15. 15. 11. 2. -5. -21. -35. -47. -53. -58. -61. -62. -63. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 23.6 86.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE 10/07/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.93 16.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.52 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.36 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.77 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 5.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.38 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.73 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.38 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.41 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 49% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 48.8% 53.2% 42.8% 36.2% 9.3% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 42.3% 54.5% 40.8% 32.5% 16.1% 23.9% 5.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 42.2% 25.6% 14.4% 33.8% 12.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 44.4% 44.5% 32.6% 34.2% 12.6% 14.2% 1.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE 10/07/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE 10/07/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 8( 12) 10( 21) 0( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 60 10( 64) 0( 64) 0( 64) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 77 82 85 85 44 32 29 30 22 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 74 77 77 36 24 21 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 69 69 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT