* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL162017 10/06/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 47 52 56 60 61 60 51 42 34 26 25 25 25 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 45 49 50 54 58 37 30 28 29 30 23 21 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 42 43 43 48 52 36 30 28 29 32 30 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 3 6 10 9 4 6 6 15 17 33 49 62 60 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 0 -4 1 2 3 3 2 5 -5 -7 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 184 114 112 98 337 314 275 274 259 263 282 288 283 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.1 29.2 28.9 27.4 27.5 25.7 23.9 21.4 16.2 17.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 167 167 166 156 158 152 131 134 115 101 88 74 77 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 170 166 167 165 153 151 140 118 121 104 90 80 70 72 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -52.2 -53.0 -54.1 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 7 7 7 8 5 7 3 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 83 81 81 80 78 75 71 67 59 52 50 54 58 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 19 19 16 15 15 13 13 9 7 7 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 183 196 187 152 114 32 10 -17 -42 -15 -11 -22 -14 53 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 122 107 113 93 78 40 65 42 59 54 37 2 10 10 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -8 -18 -12 17 7 14 55 20 32 1 -16 -60 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -59 67 206 119 10 241 250 10 -249 -465 -312 -14 42 127 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 16.5 17.7 19.1 20.5 23.7 26.8 29.8 32.9 36.1 38.6 40.4 42.2 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.5 85.1 85.6 86.4 87.1 88.6 89.4 89.3 87.3 83.5 79.1 74.4 69.7 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 16 17 17 15 16 20 22 21 20 21 22 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 66 88 96 51 33 28 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 25. 24. 22. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 6. -0. -9. -20. -23. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -17. -20. -21. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 21. 25. 26. 25. 16. 7. -1. -9. -10. -10. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.3 84.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162017 NATE 10/06/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 7.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.82 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 70.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.48 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.62 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.35 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.90 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 30.0 to 128.0 1.00 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.66 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 43.7% 27.1% 9.7% 6.8% 21.5% 25.5% 34.9% Logistic: 11.9% 59.1% 41.4% 37.7% 20.6% 34.1% 42.4% 58.5% Bayesian: 1.1% 4.6% 1.9% 0.7% 0.6% 4.8% 4.9% 7.1% Consensus: 6.9% 35.8% 23.5% 16.0% 9.4% 20.1% 24.2% 33.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162017 NATE 10/06/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162017 NATE 10/06/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 42 45 49 50 54 58 37 30 28 29 30 23 21 21 21 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 44 45 49 53 32 25 23 24 25 18 16 16 16 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 39 43 47 26 19 17 18 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 30 34 38 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT