* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAMON EP192017 10/04/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 41 40 41 42 43 43 44 47 48 47 47 45 44 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 41 40 41 42 43 43 44 47 48 47 47 45 44 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 38 37 36 34 32 32 31 31 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 35 32 31 32 31 29 29 31 24 10 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 8 6 8 10 9 3 -6 -2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 59 63 53 53 48 52 46 40 30 33 26 257 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 29.3 29.5 29.0 29.2 28.7 27.9 27.6 27.8 27.7 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 159 161 156 157 151 142 139 140 139 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 6 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 79 78 77 73 72 64 61 57 58 58 55 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 103 109 103 87 44 72 85 65 57 30 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 58 56 50 39 25 21 32 20 13 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 -6 -4 -11 -10 -5 -1 -7 -5 -5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 86 96 132 177 222 298 395 492 600 672 673 676 699 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.4 17.9 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.3 98.3 99.4 100.6 101.9 104.6 106.9 108.5 110.0 111.4 112.7 113.7 114.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 13 12 10 8 7 7 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 16 19 29 34 29 25 18 10 6 7 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -11. -16. -21. -24. -24. -22. -20. -20. -20. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.1 97.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192017 RAMON 10/04/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192017 RAMON 10/04/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##