* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/29/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 55 55 51 39 37 36 35 32 30 28 25 26 26 25 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 55 55 51 39 37 36 35 32 30 28 25 26 26 25 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 52 52 49 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 11 12 16 17 17 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 0 -1 15 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 293 286 292 289 259 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.8 25.3 23.6 23.2 17.6 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 118 114 102 100 80 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 108 104 94 92 76 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 41 41 41 40 33 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 27 27 28 28 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 44 36 44 21 -14 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 58 61 45 45 -14 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 23 4 -1 -28 -71 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 873 899 847 796 867 1268 1447 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.4 38.3 39.1 40.3 41.5 44.5 47.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.0 55.6 52.3 48.6 45.0 37.0 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 28 29 30 31 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 21 CX,CY: 21/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -11. -13. -14. -15. -18. -20. -22. -25. -24. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 37.4 59.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/29/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.59 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.62 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.66 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 382.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.49 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.41 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.52 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 15.3% 10.4% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 3.3% 3.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 6.2% 4.5% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/29/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/29/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 55 55 51 39 37 36 35 32 30 28 25 26 26 25 18HR AGO 50 49 51 52 52 48 36 34 33 32 29 27 25 22 23 23 22 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 47 43 31 29 28 27 24 22 20 17 18 18 17 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 36 24 22 21 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT