* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/29/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 52 53 54 48 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 52 53 54 48 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 49 49 50 51 49 43 31 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 8 10 14 18 22 26 44 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 -2 2 8 12 31 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 319 181 201 236 245 231 229 213 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 27.0 25.7 25.2 24.1 22.9 18.1 16.3 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 129 116 113 105 98 82 78 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 116 106 103 97 92 78 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 44 42 41 39 40 31 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 27 27 28 29 27 17 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 95 71 68 43 28 -7 -9 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 26 38 41 44 54 -9 -3 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -12 -25 -16 -2 -23 -45 -68 -98 -184 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 689 731 809 825 738 832 1357 1166 379 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.0 37.6 38.1 39.1 40.1 42.5 45.3 48.2 51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.7 61.8 58.9 55.5 52.1 44.4 35.4 25.5 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 24 26 28 30 34 36 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 16 CX,CY: 16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 766 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -10. -13. -17. -20. -25. -30. -34. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -0. -13. -26. -27. -29. -30. -30. -29. -28. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. -2. -23. -49. -51. -53. -55. -59. -63. -63. -62. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 37.0 64.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/29/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.63 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.40 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.59 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 364.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.51 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.27 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.48 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 12.9% 8.9% 6.6% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 2.2% 3.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.0% 4.0% 2.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/29/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/29/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 51 52 53 54 48 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 50 51 52 53 47 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 48 49 43 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 42 36 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT