* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/28/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 74 68 61 51 37 29 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 80 74 68 61 51 37 29 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 80 76 70 65 54 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 27 37 37 32 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 1 -1 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 14 1 3 6 4 341 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 26.6 25.5 23.3 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 124 115 100 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 116 117 112 105 92 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.0 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 6 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 47 47 50 55 55 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 18 17 14 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -127 -137 -141 -105 -82 -73 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -33 -10 18 10 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 10 21 31 39 26 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1373 1280 1175 1045 887 865 1205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.0 34.4 35.7 37.3 38.9 42.5 46.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.2 56.2 55.1 53.0 50.8 43.9 37.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 16 19 23 28 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 8 9 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 9 CX,CY: 1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -7. -14. -21. -26. -31. -35. -38. -41. -44. -46. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -12. -16. -15. -16. -16. -15. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -24. -34. -48. -56. -63. -66. -69. -71. -75. -79. -81. -82. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 33.0 57.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/28/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 689.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.14 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/28/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/28/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 5( 15) 0( 15) 0( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 80 74 68 61 51 37 29 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 78 72 65 55 41 33 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 75 68 58 44 36 29 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 68 58 44 36 29 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 56 42 34 27 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT