* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/28/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 55 54 52 50 50 46 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 57 55 54 52 50 50 46 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 58 55 53 52 51 54 50 38 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 10 8 10 6 18 24 29 39 55 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 11 5 0 2 -5 0 12 19 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 337 336 311 300 306 241 240 226 231 226 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.8 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.9 23.8 18.8 17.8 16.1 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 122 121 124 126 128 103 83 82 79 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 102 102 106 110 115 95 79 78 76 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.1 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -50.5 -50.8 -49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.4 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 51 46 44 43 41 35 30 24 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 30 29 29 26 26 29 30 24 10 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 15 36 75 72 63 45 36 -38 -46 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -31 -9 13 36 4 3 31 56 -29 -26 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -1 -8 -28 -43 -46 -82 -108 -229 -176 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 378 473 523 561 633 731 678 700 1298 1025 182 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.8 36.9 37.0 37.2 37.4 38.4 40.6 43.3 46.3 49.5 52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.3 70.0 68.8 67.0 65.1 60.0 53.4 45.6 35.8 24.3 12.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 15 18 24 30 35 40 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 7 3 7 12 11 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -17. -20. -24. -29. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -15. -35. -47. -48. -48. -46. -45. -43. -42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -14. -31. -60. -81. -81. -83. -85. -84. -81. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 36.8 71.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/28/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.67 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.71 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.72 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 342.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.54 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.13 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.15 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.77 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 16.3% 11.4% 9.0% 5.8% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 3.8% 3.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.7% 5.0% 3.3% 2.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/28/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/28/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 57 55 54 52 50 50 46 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 57 56 54 52 52 48 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 53 51 51 47 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 46 46 42 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT