* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/28/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 58 55 53 51 47 43 35 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 62 58 55 53 51 47 43 35 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 63 61 58 56 54 54 51 45 34 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 19 10 10 10 10 15 20 29 40 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 9 5 0 0 2 9 15 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 317 341 342 307 305 242 242 230 219 229 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.6 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.9 24.4 17.8 17.0 15.7 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 125 124 124 128 107 80 79 77 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 98 104 105 108 115 99 77 76 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.7 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -50.6 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4 -0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 57 50 47 45 45 48 35 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 31 31 30 29 28 29 29 19 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 1 23 28 74 118 108 62 -7 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -26 -13 11 30 16 23 42 -14 -7 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 -2 -9 2 -5 -39 -59 -106 -200 -150 -204 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 359 415 477 525 566 670 729 640 1150 1316 543 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.5 36.8 37.0 37.2 37.3 38.2 40.2 42.9 45.7 48.7 51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.8 70.8 69.9 68.3 66.6 61.7 54.9 47.0 38.0 28.1 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 13 17 24 31 34 36 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 6 9 7 9 11 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -25. -28. -30. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -10. -12. -15. -18. -20. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -10. -11. -13. -27. -42. -42. -42. -41. -40. -38. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -5. -5. -2. -0. -2. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -18. -22. -30. -49. -72. -70. -72. -75. -75. -73. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 36.5 71.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/28/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.51 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.22 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.62 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 364.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.51 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.08 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.64 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 11.6% 8.7% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.1% 3.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/28/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/28/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 62 58 55 53 51 47 43 35 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 60 57 55 53 49 45 37 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 58 56 54 50 46 38 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 51 47 43 35 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT