* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/27/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 96 91 85 71 58 40 28 23 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 99 96 91 85 71 58 40 28 23 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 99 97 92 86 75 62 49 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 18 20 24 26 32 35 16 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 0 -1 0 0 2 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 338 348 10 15 8 13 346 306 283 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 26.4 21.3 19.3 15.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 134 133 133 122 91 84 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 113 113 114 116 111 85 80 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -52.4 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 44 44 45 45 48 53 51 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 21 20 16 14 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -89 -99 -118 -128 -133 -87 -57 -58 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -36 -21 -42 -22 -34 5 38 18 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 0 10 34 40 4 -76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1600 1523 1447 1368 1282 1056 809 1128 1504 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.5 32.2 33.3 34.3 37.2 40.8 44.5 48.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.0 57.1 57.3 56.8 56.3 53.3 47.2 38.9 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 11 15 24 33 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 11 12 14 9 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -17. -28. -40. -47. -52. -55. -59. -62. -64. -65. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -19. -16. -15. -13. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -16. -18. -19. -21. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -9. -15. -29. -42. -60. -72. -77. -80. -83. -85. -86. -86. -87. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 30.8 57.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/27/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 879.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/27/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/27/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 19( 37) 10( 43) 4( 45) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 99 96 91 85 71 58 40 28 23 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 96 91 85 71 58 40 28 23 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 91 85 71 58 40 28 23 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 84 70 57 39 27 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 67 54 36 24 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 99 90 84 81 74 61 43 31 26 23 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 99 96 87 81 77 64 46 34 29 26 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS