* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/27/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 56 53 50 47 45 45 41 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 56 53 50 47 45 45 41 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 58 56 54 50 50 52 49 41 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 14 15 16 7 4 9 17 17 29 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 3 8 3 0 8 6 15 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 289 304 336 350 260 214 200 221 220 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.7 26.6 27.1 24.7 19.3 17.1 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 116 117 121 122 130 109 85 80 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 94 95 97 101 106 117 101 81 77 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -49.8 -49.9 -50.2 -50.5 -50.2 -50.4 -50.1 -50.8 -50.8 -49.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 5 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 58 59 56 46 42 39 38 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 36 35 33 31 29 29 28 24 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 1 -7 1 24 79 121 97 53 12 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 13 -20 -37 2 28 15 54 49 2 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 5 0 -4 -2 -4 -23 -14 -28 -9 -156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 267 296 328 410 472 586 668 760 655 1181 1263 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.4 35.7 36.0 36.3 36.5 36.9 38.1 39.8 42.5 45.9 49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.8 72.5 72.1 71.2 70.3 67.1 62.0 55.5 47.3 37.5 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 6 8 10 17 24 30 36 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 2 1 2 5 3 16 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -20. -21. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -12. -16. -23. -37. -38. -38. -37. -36. -35. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -15. -19. -27. -50. -50. -53. -55. -55. -54. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 35.4 72.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/27/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.49 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.33 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.59 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 12.2% 8.9% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.3% 3.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/27/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/27/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 59 56 53 50 47 45 45 41 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 56 53 50 47 45 45 41 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 50 47 45 45 41 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 47 44 42 42 38 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT