* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/26/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 54 52 50 44 39 39 41 38 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 57 54 52 50 44 39 39 41 38 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 58 56 55 54 50 47 48 50 48 40 32 26 22 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 15 16 20 15 15 4 3 19 20 36 73 84 61 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 -1 2 4 3 3 6 13 14 21 14 18 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 290 299 301 293 324 317 211 187 218 213 229 236 260 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.3 25.6 26.9 27.1 20.7 16.2 15.5 13.7 14.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 108 108 107 106 107 111 126 131 88 78 77 75 76 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 89 89 88 88 90 96 111 118 83 75 74 72 74 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.8 -49.9 -50.3 -49.7 -50.1 -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 -50.3 -50.2 -49.5 -47.3 -47.8 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 5 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 60 58 56 54 44 38 36 35 17 26 25 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 39 38 37 38 38 35 32 31 31 29 24 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 44 20 13 5 6 34 140 106 95 49 33 25 -49 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 1 0 5 1 -22 26 29 59 68 21 -15 -35 -23 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 4 4 6 4 -1 3 -6 -20 24 -30 -133 -168 -37 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 308 284 265 271 283 382 553 627 684 578 703 1330 1020 171 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.9 34.4 34.8 35.2 35.5 36.0 36.6 37.4 39.0 41.5 44.7 48.6 52.5 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.1 73.1 73.0 72.8 72.6 71.5 69.0 65.2 59.9 52.9 44.5 34.9 25.3 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 8 13 19 26 32 37 37 36 38 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 18 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -11. -13. -17. -21. -25. -26. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 3. 0. -8. -21. -31. -34. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -14. -18. -26. -36. -43. -41. -40. -38. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -10. -16. -21. -21. -19. -22. -34. -53. -74. -88. -90. -90. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 33.9 73.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/26/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/26/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/26/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 57 54 52 50 44 39 39 41 38 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 56 54 52 46 41 41 43 40 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 54 52 46 41 41 43 40 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 42 37 37 39 36 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT