* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/26/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 59 56 54 51 46 41 41 43 38 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 62 59 56 54 51 46 41 41 43 38 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 62 60 58 57 56 53 51 51 54 53 45 41 40 37 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 15 17 16 14 15 4 7 17 26 44 76 93 52 25 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 -2 0 0 1 1 5 6 11 18 26 24 12 0 -1 26 SHEAR DIR 315 319 323 308 316 299 325 16 225 202 218 226 228 243 253 266 275 SST (C) 26.2 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.5 26.9 27.2 20.5 16.3 15.4 13.2 12.8 13.2 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 114 110 108 107 107 106 107 110 126 132 88 78 78 74 70 67 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 92 90 89 89 88 90 94 111 119 83 75 75 72 68 64 61 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.0 -49.8 -50.1 -50.5 -49.8 -50.3 -50.4 -50.4 -49.9 -49.8 -49.6 -49.8 -48.1 -47.4 -48.4 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.7 2.1 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.8 2.4 1.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 7 5 4 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 63 64 63 64 61 59 54 40 37 37 29 23 20 29 32 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 39 39 37 36 36 37 35 34 33 34 32 29 28 41 42 36 29 850 MB ENV VOR 54 45 54 51 29 17 2 29 74 122 143 145 13 31 53 -24 -137 200 MB DIV 17 18 13 1 -1 21 -7 30 28 71 42 27 -23 -38 -7 -12 0 700-850 TADV 19 17 8 1 9 4 1 19 -2 2 -1 36 -114 -95 14 -39 7 LAND (KM) 395 358 323 294 271 288 400 569 602 657 533 689 1263 891 378 188 78 LAT (DEG N) 32.6 33.1 33.6 34.1 34.5 35.2 35.8 36.3 37.5 39.2 41.9 45.3 48.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.1 73.1 73.2 73.1 73.1 72.6 71.3 69.2 65.5 60.1 53.0 44.4 35.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 5 8 12 19 26 33 35 39 37 23 11 5 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -15. -17. -21. -25. -29. -32. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 2. -2. -11. -24. -33. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -16. -22. -23. -5. -5. -12. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -19. -24. -24. -22. -27. -37. -51. -49. -60. -70. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 32.6 73.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/26/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 295.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/26/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/26/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 62 59 56 54 51 46 41 41 43 38 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 61 58 56 53 48 43 43 45 40 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 58 56 53 48 43 43 45 40 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 50 45 40 40 42 37 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT