* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/26/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 67 65 64 60 55 47 45 47 44 34 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 69 67 65 64 60 55 47 45 47 44 34 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 69 68 66 65 62 58 54 53 56 58 50 41 41 45 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 16 13 13 14 12 13 5 6 14 24 25 44 82 86 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 -1 -1 0 2 0 5 0 -3 9 16 18 21 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 307 317 297 299 296 288 311 331 255 196 200 198 221 247 244 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.3 25.6 25.3 25.1 25.8 26.7 24.7 13.5 18.8 13.2 13.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 120 116 114 108 106 106 114 125 109 73 84 75 76 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 102 99 96 95 89 88 90 99 112 100 71 80 73 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.0 -49.9 -49.7 -50.1 -50.2 -49.8 -50.4 -50.4 -50.3 -50.0 -50.1 -49.9 -48.7 -46.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.4 2.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 7 7 5 7 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 63 64 64 62 60 60 50 44 38 37 30 31 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 40 40 39 38 39 38 38 35 33 34 32 29 20 22 39 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 54 50 51 49 22 10 26 57 115 177 128 110 125 245 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 20 14 16 7 42 -23 15 19 61 59 68 0 4 50 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 13 12 6 2 5 1 3 -4 -19 -10 -18 6 -47 -51 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 446 409 376 344 309 287 355 508 580 630 657 496 888 1284 316 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.5 33.0 33.5 34.0 34.9 35.6 36.1 37.0 38.3 40.5 43.5 46.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 72.7 71.8 70.1 67.0 62.5 56.3 48.7 41.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 10 16 23 29 31 39 46 44 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 9 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -25. -29. -33. -36. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -12. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -14. -17. -23. -34. -32. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -15. -23. -25. -23. -26. -36. -54. -65. -56. -58. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 32.0 73.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/26/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 352.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/26/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/26/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 69 67 65 64 60 55 47 45 47 44 34 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 67 65 64 60 55 47 45 47 44 34 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 63 59 54 46 44 46 43 33 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 55 50 42 40 42 39 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT