* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/25/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 67 65 63 59 57 49 46 42 43 37 23 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 68 67 65 63 59 57 49 46 42 43 37 23 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 68 66 65 63 61 60 57 55 56 57 54 45 41 41 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 18 18 15 16 11 13 3 12 26 36 57 74 81 53 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 -2 0 -1 0 3 7 7 15 19 17 14 7 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 296 306 310 313 308 295 283 313 301 244 216 234 215 237 239 234 217 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.3 25.6 25.3 25.3 26.2 26.8 23.3 13.8 13.7 12.6 13.7 14.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 124 121 120 114 107 106 108 118 126 99 76 76 73 73 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 105 103 100 99 94 89 89 93 104 113 89 74 74 71 70 70 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.0 -50.0 -50.1 -49.7 -50.2 -49.9 -50.1 -50.3 -50.5 -49.8 -49.6 -49.9 -48.3 -47.0 -45.7 -44.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.4 2.2 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.2 1.4 2.1 4.7 6.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 5 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 59 61 63 65 64 62 59 54 45 43 35 24 34 39 52 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 41 41 39 39 39 41 38 37 35 36 35 30 34 39 39 37 850 MB ENV VOR 69 66 46 40 48 32 22 21 51 74 134 165 93 192 210 333 353 200 MB DIV 34 32 26 24 17 10 21 1 24 33 63 32 0 15 14 55 60 700-850 TADV 15 15 18 15 10 6 7 1 17 4 -1 44 -84 -144 -146 -18 12 LAND (KM) 490 448 409 371 335 283 284 355 538 594 630 644 509 1480 864 190 11 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 31.9 32.4 32.9 33.4 34.3 35.0 35.6 36.3 37.2 38.8 41.0 43.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.1 73.1 73.1 73.1 73.2 73.1 72.7 71.8 69.6 66.2 61.3 55.2 49.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 7 12 18 23 26 46 49 32 29 27 HEAT CONTENT 18 15 10 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. -23. -27. -31. -35. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -16. -26. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -17. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -7. -9. -13. -12. -16. -22. -17. -11. -10. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -21. -24. -28. -27. -33. -47. -54. -60. -68. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 31.4 73.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/25/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.37 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.74 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.37 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 359.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.52 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.27 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 12.1% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.4% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.8% 3.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/25/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/25/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 68 67 65 63 59 57 49 46 42 43 37 23 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 68 66 64 60 58 50 47 43 44 38 24 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 62 58 56 48 45 41 42 36 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 58 54 52 44 41 37 38 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT