* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/25/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 80 81 83 85 85 89 89 84 76 64 55 64 55 54 53 V (KT) LAND 80 80 80 81 83 85 85 89 89 84 76 64 55 64 55 54 53 V (KT) LGEM 80 80 80 80 82 84 85 86 85 81 72 61 54 52 49 47 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 5 3 4 7 2 9 21 29 35 34 34 38 55 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -3 -1 2 -4 -3 -2 2 0 2 -3 7 7 6 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 226 156 152 122 53 24 341 316 332 356 356 354 341 282 281 249 N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 26.7 25.4 23.7 16.7 16.2 14.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 119 121 124 130 131 130 130 131 123 111 103 80 76 73 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 97 98 101 103 108 109 107 108 111 106 97 96 77 73 69 N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -56.8 -56.3 -56.2 -56.2 -55.9 -55.7 -55.1 -54.0 -52.7 -52.5 -51.8 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -48.7 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 8 3 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 50 48 46 44 43 45 45 44 42 41 53 61 70 66 49 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 15 16 20 20 19 22 24 24 22 20 18 30 29 35 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -71 -71 -71 -68 -70 -79 -83 -92 -100 -138 -163 -41 91 136 145 262 N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -33 -40 -36 -17 8 12 -24 -10 -54 -14 49 37 65 19 68 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 15 24 50 118 -128 -25 -77 N/A LAND (KM) 1763 1778 1793 1798 1803 1782 1744 1653 1557 1411 1201 992 897 1423 1016 479 N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.0 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.7 31.0 31.6 32.5 34.0 36.0 38.6 41.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.4 49.5 49.6 50.1 50.5 51.7 52.7 53.5 53.6 53.0 51.1 48.0 44.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 4 4 5 4 5 6 10 15 18 34 41 30 24 N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 7 9 16 20 20 13 14 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -11. -16. -20. -23. -25. -28. -32. -37. -40. -44. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 9. 6. 3. 0. -3. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. 2. 2. 1. 5. 7. 6. 3. -2. -4. 11. 8. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -6. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 9. 9. 4. -4. -16. -25. -16. -25. -26. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 31.1 49.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/25/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 572.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.27 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -25.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 13.1% 9.2% 5.0% 3.4% 9.0% 6.7% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.6% 3.1% 1.7% 1.1% 3.0% 2.2% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/25/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/25/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 7( 14) 9( 21) 10( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 80 80 81 83 85 85 89 89 84 76 64 55 64 55 54 53 18HR AGO 80 79 79 80 82 84 84 88 88 83 75 63 54 63 54 53 52 12HR AGO 80 77 76 77 79 81 81 85 85 80 72 60 51 60 51 50 49 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 72 74 74 78 78 73 65 53 44 53 44 43 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT