* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL142017 09/24/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 84 86 88 87 88 88 87 85 86 78 72 65 77 66 65 V (KT) LAND 75 80 84 86 88 87 88 88 87 85 86 78 72 65 77 66 65 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 85 86 86 85 84 85 83 83 82 76 71 65 61 53 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 2 6 4 8 10 11 8 7 5 5 13 27 35 11 11 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -5 -6 0 -2 -2 -4 0 9 3 0 -1 5 17 N/A SHEAR DIR 302 198 212 189 155 145 128 119 147 188 290 16 35 22 15 75 N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.6 25.4 23.2 22.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 124 124 124 125 130 131 131 131 128 126 133 113 97 89 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 103 102 102 102 103 107 109 108 108 106 105 113 102 86 78 N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.3 -56.1 -56.5 -56.7 -55.9 -56.0 -55.3 -55.4 -54.7 -54.1 -52.9 -52.3 -51.4 -50.7 -50.4 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 2 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 55 55 53 45 42 40 42 41 41 38 37 44 47 37 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 17 17 16 18 19 19 20 23 21 20 18 31 26 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -68 -67 -69 -62 -67 -68 -72 -72 -85 -90 -120 -154 -52 26 35 N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -11 -5 -15 -32 -29 -17 -7 -10 -13 -10 -44 -14 77 57 28 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 14 24 20 0 N/A LAND (KM) 1709 1735 1761 1791 1821 1862 1862 1842 1782 1701 1590 1459 1319 1091 904 1098 N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.3 31.1 30.9 30.6 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.7 31.4 32.4 33.6 34.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.1 49.8 49.5 49.3 49.2 49.4 50.2 51.1 51.8 52.4 52.4 51.9 51.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 4 4 6 7 13 24 21 15 N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 10 9 9 9 10 14 16 16 18 10 7 7 0 0 0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -22. -24. -27. -30. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 11. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 6. 3. -0. -3. 13. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 13. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 11. 3. -3. -10. 2. -9. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 31.5 50.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142017 LEE 09/24/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.87 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 482.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.08 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.2% 24.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 17.4% 14.1% 3.3% 0.7% 5.6% 5.9% 2.1% Bayesian: 4.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.5% 14.4% 4.9% 1.2% 0.2% 1.9% 2.0% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142017 LEE 09/24/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142017 LEE 09/24/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 9( 14) 11( 23) 10( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 84 86 88 87 88 88 87 85 86 78 72 65 77 66 65 18HR AGO 75 74 78 80 82 81 82 82 81 79 80 72 66 59 71 60 59 12HR AGO 75 72 71 73 75 74 75 75 74 72 73 65 59 52 64 53 52 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 67 66 67 67 66 64 65 57 51 44 56 45 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 80 84 75 69 65 66 66 65 63 64 56 50 43 55 44 43