* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PILAR EP182017 09/24/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 44 45 46 47 47 45 38 31 23 23 23 23 23 21 21 V (KT) LAND 40 43 44 45 46 47 47 45 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 47 48 48 48 45 36 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 11 10 11 9 14 29 36 45 45 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 1 0 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 85 85 93 99 142 179 178 192 186 201 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 157 157 159 161 162 161 160 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 10 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 61 58 53 51 45 43 39 42 40 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 77 70 82 97 70 92 85 89 51 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 18 14 25 21 17 43 51 42 25 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -1 0 1 0 0 3 5 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 71 51 31 8 33 33 43 15 -15 -30 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.6 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.4 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.5 105.6 105.7 105.8 105.8 105.9 106.1 106.4 106.7 107.2 107.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 26 24 23 24 28 30 29 27 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 446 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 27. 29. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -3. -11. -20. -28. -30. -32. -33. -35. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. -1. -9. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -19. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.0 105.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182017 PILAR 09/24/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.83 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.38 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.31 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.63 -4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.57 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.24 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.77 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 24.5% 23.9% 19.7% 13.7% 20.5% 16.5% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 15.6% 9.5% 6.9% 4.2% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.4% 14.0% 11.2% 8.9% 6.0% 7.5% 5.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182017 PILAR 09/24/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##