* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/24/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 101 101 103 101 100 94 90 83 74 60 52 46 42 44 39 V (KT) LAND 100 101 101 101 103 101 100 94 90 83 74 60 52 46 42 44 39 V (KT) LGEM 100 100 101 100 97 94 92 86 77 68 63 57 53 51 50 52 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 10 9 11 13 13 7 10 12 19 15 19 10 18 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -4 -5 1 2 4 -3 0 3 7 13 3 3 15 25 SHEAR DIR 231 255 242 204 207 319 303 305 301 299 325 338 313 323 302 227 234 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.4 27.9 28.1 28.3 27.6 26.6 26.1 25.7 25.4 25.9 26.8 26.8 26.2 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 150 141 134 136 138 129 117 111 107 105 115 125 123 121 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 129 119 113 113 114 106 96 91 88 87 101 110 104 110 75 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.5 -50.4 -50.0 -50.3 -50.1 -49.6 -49.6 -49.1 -49.5 -48.8 -49.5 -50.0 -50.6 -50.3 -49.9 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 8 7 5 3 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 65 60 60 61 55 54 56 61 63 64 60 57 59 62 54 51 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 41 41 42 46 46 48 47 47 46 45 40 37 36 34 37 38 850 MB ENV VOR 51 49 55 72 78 89 86 76 78 66 60 50 80 62 86 148 185 200 MB DIV 65 48 55 72 60 50 55 35 11 16 -9 0 13 25 34 80 105 700-850 TADV 10 14 11 7 4 13 14 12 3 2 -2 12 10 -24 9 35 93 LAND (KM) 702 745 740 741 682 571 490 417 347 301 288 338 390 698 718 616 312 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.4 28.2 28.8 29.4 30.5 31.4 32.3 33.2 33.9 34.5 34.7 35.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.4 72.5 72.7 72.8 73.0 73.1 73.1 73.1 73.2 73.2 72.9 72.2 71.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 17 19 13 27 34 HEAT CONTENT 45 43 33 23 18 24 26 16 5 1 0 0 1 21 13 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -1. -6. -12. -21. -29. -37. -44. -49. -53. -56. -58. -60. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 3. 0. -7. -11. -13. -16. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 1. -0. -6. -10. -17. -26. -40. -48. -54. -58. -56. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 26.6 72.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/24/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 497.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.3% 14.8% 10.6% 5.4% 2.4% 2.3% 1.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 9.9% 3.7% 1.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/24/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/24/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 23( 40) 25( 55) 23( 65) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 54 27( 66) 0( 66) 0( 66) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 101 101 101 103 101 100 94 90 83 74 60 52 46 42 44 39 18HR AGO 100 99 99 99 101 99 98 92 88 81 72 58 50 44 40 42 37 12HR AGO 100 97 96 96 98 96 95 89 85 78 69 55 47 41 37 39 34 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 92 90 89 83 79 72 63 49 41 35 31 33 28 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 79 78 72 68 61 52 38 30 24 20 22 17 IN 6HR 100 101 92 86 83 82 81 75 71 64 55 41 33 27 23 25 20 IN 12HR 100 101 101 92 86 82 81 75 71 64 55 41 33 27 23 25 20