* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/23/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 101 101 101 98 99 98 97 90 83 73 66 57 52 48 47 V (KT) LAND 100 100 101 101 101 98 99 98 97 90 83 73 66 57 52 48 47 V (KT) LGEM 100 100 100 100 98 92 90 89 83 75 69 64 59 57 53 52 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 13 11 9 9 10 14 6 6 8 16 11 18 13 18 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 3 1 -2 -3 0 5 3 -4 -3 5 10 7 10 18 18 SHEAR DIR 233 236 232 221 195 272 312 306 308 276 324 321 326 323 312 264 240 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.5 28.0 28.5 28.1 27.4 26.9 26.2 25.5 25.5 26.2 27.2 26.3 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 158 154 142 134 141 135 126 120 113 106 110 118 127 121 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 141 136 132 121 112 117 111 103 98 92 87 95 102 107 108 84 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 -50.0 -50.2 -49.7 -49.5 -49.0 -49.0 -48.8 -49.2 -49.5 -49.9 -50.0 -50.0 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 8 7 8 3 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 67 66 61 60 62 54 55 59 63 64 60 55 53 56 52 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 39 41 41 42 41 44 45 47 45 43 41 39 36 35 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR 42 51 51 56 71 83 85 84 85 82 80 68 65 59 60 67 135 200 MB DIV 66 55 44 63 85 38 60 42 41 3 16 -13 26 5 24 12 36 700-850 TADV 18 12 19 13 7 7 17 19 17 6 -1 0 17 21 47 27 44 LAND (KM) 635 703 721 716 721 609 518 437 381 332 308 314 326 624 705 631 617 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.7 27.5 28.2 28.9 30.0 30.9 31.8 32.5 33.2 33.8 34.3 34.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.4 72.6 72.8 73.0 73.1 73.3 73.4 73.4 73.4 73.4 73.2 72.7 72.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 13 16 12 23 29 HEAT CONTENT 43 50 47 38 24 19 27 22 13 9 1 0 0 4 23 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -10. -19. -26. -33. -40. -45. -50. -54. -56. -58. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 4. 7. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 5. 7. 9. 6. 3. -2. -4. -9. -10. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -10. -17. -27. -34. -43. -48. -52. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 25.9 72.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/23/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.60 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.27 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.75 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.39 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.53 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 429.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.44 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.46 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 13.9% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.7% 10.6% 7.5% 4.1% 1.9% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 8.3% 5.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/23/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/23/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 23( 40) 23( 54) 21( 63) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 24 41( 55) 6( 58) 0( 58) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 100 101 101 101 98 99 98 97 90 83 73 66 57 52 48 47 18HR AGO 100 99 100 100 100 97 98 97 96 89 82 72 65 56 51 47 46 12HR AGO 100 97 96 96 96 93 94 93 92 85 78 68 61 52 47 43 42 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 90 87 88 87 86 79 72 62 55 46 41 37 36 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 78 79 78 77 70 63 53 46 37 32 28 27 IN 6HR 100 100 91 85 82 78 79 78 77 70 63 53 46 37 32 28 27 IN 12HR 100 100 101 92 86 82 83 82 81 74 67 57 50 41 36 32 31