* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/23/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 103 105 106 104 106 102 101 96 93 87 80 70 60 54 50 42 V (KT) LAND 105 103 105 106 104 106 102 101 96 93 87 80 70 60 54 50 42 V (KT) LGEM 105 104 104 104 103 100 94 90 87 78 70 65 61 58 56 55 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 10 13 10 5 12 11 18 9 12 16 21 12 17 18 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -4 -2 3 -1 1 0 6 0 -4 -6 0 5 7 14 17 SHEAR DIR 219 218 211 222 258 227 288 316 310 281 274 313 321 323 298 265 239 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.2 27.7 28.0 27.9 26.5 25.6 26.0 25.7 26.4 25.9 26.9 18.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 161 159 156 138 130 134 133 116 108 112 109 117 113 127 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 142 139 135 117 109 111 109 97 90 93 90 97 94 113 77 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -50.0 -50.3 -49.8 -49.7 -49.1 -49.1 -49.0 -49.2 -49.5 -49.9 -49.4 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 5 2 0 700-500 MB RH 66 65 66 64 61 62 56 57 57 64 63 64 61 58 59 54 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 40 41 39 44 44 46 46 48 47 45 42 39 38 37 34 850 MB ENV VOR 46 35 45 53 45 64 80 81 79 72 72 63 51 40 72 106 132 200 MB DIV 103 96 93 71 40 74 27 52 28 35 2 7 -20 35 39 67 45 700-850 TADV 10 13 13 14 15 6 12 9 15 12 3 -3 3 15 28 112 102 LAND (KM) 505 581 649 720 741 730 629 546 488 422 392 402 445 473 477 455 329 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.2 26.0 26.8 27.6 29.0 30.1 31.1 32.0 33.0 33.9 34.9 35.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.9 72.1 72.3 72.5 72.6 72.8 72.7 72.6 72.4 72.4 72.0 71.4 70.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 10 23 35 HEAT CONTENT 49 40 42 47 41 21 18 23 22 2 0 1 3 9 0 27 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 2. 1. -3. -11. -20. -28. -36. -43. -49. -54. -59. -62. -64. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -5. -3. -1. 1. 4. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 5. 5. 8. 9. 10. 8. 6. 1. -4. -6. -7. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -0. 1. -1. 1. -3. -4. -9. -12. -18. -25. -35. -45. -51. -55. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 24.4 71.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/23/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.52 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.78 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.31 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.48 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.44 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.55 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 13.5% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 3.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 5.6% 4.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/23/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/23/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 27( 47) 26( 61) 27( 71) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 52 86( 93) 76( 98) 13( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 103 105 106 104 106 102 101 96 93 87 80 70 60 54 50 42 18HR AGO 105 104 106 107 105 107 103 102 97 94 88 81 71 61 55 51 43 12HR AGO 105 102 101 102 100 102 98 97 92 89 83 76 66 56 50 46 38 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 93 95 91 90 85 82 76 69 59 49 43 39 31 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 88 84 83 78 75 69 62 52 42 36 32 24 IN 6HR 105 103 94 88 85 87 83 82 77 74 68 61 51 41 35 31 23 IN 12HR 105 103 105 96 90 86 82 81 76 73 67 60 50 40 34 30 22