* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/22/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 107 106 104 104 104 106 103 101 94 92 89 82 72 66 62 V (KT) LAND 110 108 107 106 104 104 104 106 103 101 94 92 89 82 72 66 62 V (KT) LGEM 110 109 108 107 106 105 103 95 88 83 78 74 71 68 63 62 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 19 21 20 15 10 8 14 19 19 16 9 13 11 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 5 1 -1 0 0 0 6 3 -2 -4 -8 0 5 8 14 SHEAR DIR 243 226 208 217 215 216 255 244 291 271 263 230 242 292 7 355 288 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.5 25.6 25.5 26.4 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 156 161 163 165 150 132 129 127 123 122 118 108 106 119 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 140 144 145 144 128 111 108 106 102 101 100 90 87 102 99 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -50.6 -50.1 -50.0 -49.6 -49.7 -49.3 -49.5 -49.8 -50.4 -50.3 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.5 1.4 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 7 6 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 62 64 64 64 64 63 59 57 57 59 63 63 61 55 49 53 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 34 36 36 40 41 43 45 46 45 46 46 44 41 39 39 850 MB ENV VOR 35 46 46 31 29 41 42 68 87 98 107 120 128 81 75 61 65 200 MB DIV 80 111 109 106 96 82 56 47 32 37 50 49 18 -26 -10 13 34 700-850 TADV 22 22 8 10 11 9 15 10 19 17 12 8 3 9 15 28 45 LAND (KM) 234 317 400 485 562 702 764 759 683 633 593 540 511 561 585 625 604 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.7 23.4 24.2 25.0 26.6 27.9 29.0 30.0 31.0 32.0 33.0 34.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.9 71.2 71.5 71.8 72.1 72.4 72.4 72.2 71.9 71.4 71.0 70.8 70.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 9 6 4 13 21 HEAT CONTENT 63 65 62 54 43 46 35 22 19 16 12 9 4 3 2 9 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -19. -28. -36. -42. -47. -52. -58. -63. -65. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -12. -6. -3. -1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 16. 17. 16. 11. 6. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -7. -9. -16. -18. -21. -28. -38. -44. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 21.9 70.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/22/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.28 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.39 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.85 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.23 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.37 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 480.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.38 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.65 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 13.0% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 5.2% 2.9% 2.3% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.5% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 6.2% 4.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/22/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/22/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 27( 48) 26( 62) 26( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 17 25( 38) 13( 46) 29( 62) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 108 107 106 104 104 104 106 103 101 94 92 89 82 72 66 62 18HR AGO 110 109 108 107 105 105 105 107 104 102 95 93 90 83 73 67 63 12HR AGO 110 107 106 105 103 103 103 105 102 100 93 91 88 81 71 65 61 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 98 98 98 100 97 95 88 86 83 76 66 60 56 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 91 91 93 90 88 81 79 76 69 59 53 49 IN 6HR 110 108 99 93 90 90 90 92 89 87 80 78 75 68 58 52 48 IN 12HR 110 108 107 98 92 88 88 90 87 85 78 76 73 66 56 50 46