* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/22/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 37 35 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 37 35 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 40 39 38 37 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 9 16 19 31 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -2 -3 -5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 272 272 249 261 281 274 304 315 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.0 22.7 22.5 22.6 22.8 23.4 24.1 25.2 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 87 86 84 85 86 90 95 103 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 72 72 71 71 72 74 78 83 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.6 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 0.9 1.1 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 1 1 0 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 41 42 44 43 43 42 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 27 25 24 20 17 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 7 1 -11 -21 -42 -62 -92 -103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 4 -16 -24 -15 -44 -26 -72 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 275 267 259 265 272 299 332 369 401 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.5 39.4 39.2 39.1 39.0 39.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.2 68.4 68.6 68.7 68.8 68.6 68.0 67.4 66.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -17. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -5. -10. -16. -24. -31. -33. -34. -35. -35. -34. -34. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -10. -14. -20. -30. -40. -43. -45. -46. -48. -49. -49. -50. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 39.6 68.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/22/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 261.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/22/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/22/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 42 39 37 35 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 41 39 37 33 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 37 33 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT