* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/21/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 106 105 103 101 100 100 104 103 99 96 92 92 88 86 79 70 V (KT) LAND 105 106 105 103 101 100 100 104 103 99 96 92 92 88 86 79 70 V (KT) LGEM 105 105 104 103 103 105 104 102 95 85 79 77 74 72 71 68 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 17 18 16 17 13 11 8 14 12 17 15 20 12 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 9 7 6 2 -1 1 -2 3 0 2 -4 -5 -7 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 279 255 247 242 230 225 197 235 219 272 287 279 235 229 178 235 296 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.3 27.8 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.4 27.2 26.5 25.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 159 161 163 165 167 155 133 124 122 122 114 121 116 110 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 144 145 146 147 146 134 113 105 102 103 94 96 96 91 91 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -50.7 -51.4 -50.7 -50.6 -49.7 -50.0 -49.6 -49.6 -49.2 -49.6 -49.3 -49.5 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.9 2.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 55 57 59 60 65 62 65 61 60 56 59 59 63 63 57 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 29 29 30 36 37 41 41 42 43 44 46 46 47 45 42 850 MB ENV VOR 52 58 41 30 45 31 36 44 58 80 88 108 116 137 143 114 89 200 MB DIV 62 81 73 47 73 85 111 54 49 20 32 21 68 55 31 -16 -21 700-850 TADV 2 6 13 18 19 11 12 14 8 12 9 14 12 8 0 1 14 LAND (KM) 98 154 216 284 356 507 650 769 778 689 625 601 584 653 571 493 582 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.1 21.7 22.4 23.0 24.4 25.9 27.4 28.8 30.0 31.2 32.4 33.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.5 70.0 70.4 70.8 71.2 71.8 72.1 72.3 72.2 71.8 71.3 70.5 69.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 3 0 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 55 60 70 77 71 55 42 42 29 23 15 11 6 16 6 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -12. -18. -25. -32. -36. -41. -47. -51. -54. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -10. -5. -2. 1. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 6. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. 15. 13. 14. 10. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -1. -2. -6. -9. -13. -13. -17. -19. -26. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 20.5 69.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/21/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.47 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 66.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.45 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.80 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.31 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 567.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.28 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.10 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.48 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 15.3% 10.9% 8.3% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 5.1% 2.9% 2.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 6.0% 3.1% 1.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 7.8% 5.1% 3.8% 2.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/21/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/21/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 27( 47) 23( 59) 22( 68) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 64 27( 74) 38( 84) 23( 87) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 106 105 103 101 100 100 104 103 99 96 92 92 88 86 79 70 18HR AGO 105 104 103 101 99 98 98 102 101 97 94 90 90 86 84 77 68 12HR AGO 105 102 101 99 97 96 96 100 99 95 92 88 88 84 82 75 66 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 93 92 92 96 95 91 88 84 84 80 78 71 62 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 85 85 89 88 84 81 77 77 73 71 64 55 IN 6HR 105 106 97 91 88 88 88 92 91 87 84 80 80 76 74 67 58 IN 12HR 105 106 105 96 90 86 86 90 89 85 82 78 78 74 72 65 56