* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/20/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 139 141 141 140 133 123 116 117 115 115 112 106 99 92 90 82 V (KT) LAND 140 124 130 130 129 122 112 105 106 104 105 101 96 88 81 79 71 V (KT) LGEM 140 137 127 127 126 123 120 116 113 109 104 95 85 76 72 69 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 4 2 5 9 13 9 16 13 15 11 21 15 16 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 1 4 7 7 6 3 -1 3 2 7 4 5 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 223 277 352 213 282 290 252 222 235 241 259 269 292 300 280 232 256 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 165 163 163 165 163 159 159 163 163 153 135 130 125 120 120 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 156 153 152 153 149 143 143 145 143 133 116 111 104 101 101 105 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -50.3 -50.9 -50.0 -50.5 -49.6 -49.6 -48.8 -49.2 -48.7 -48.5 -48.1 -48.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.3 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 55 55 56 53 51 55 60 67 64 68 64 66 63 67 63 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 33 32 32 33 33 35 41 42 45 47 47 47 47 48 45 850 MB ENV VOR 44 48 49 60 50 54 47 58 48 60 58 63 61 71 81 110 102 200 MB DIV 53 31 36 17 -1 66 59 121 89 127 80 67 19 65 56 135 0 700-850 TADV 4 8 4 2 -1 3 14 21 10 18 19 16 27 17 21 3 6 LAND (KM) 95 -1 11 62 105 115 207 333 478 625 756 763 607 531 465 303 294 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.5 20.5 21.6 22.8 24.1 25.6 27.1 28.8 30.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.1 65.9 66.6 67.3 68.0 69.2 70.2 71.0 71.6 72.0 72.3 72.5 72.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 8 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 64 62 54 53 57 58 71 73 60 40 39 30 25 19 7 3 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 145 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -1. -7. -18. -31. -42. -51. -58. -64. -70. -77. -82. -86. -87. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 13. 17. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 10. 12. 16. 17. 16. 15. 13. 13. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 1. -0. -7. -17. -24. -23. -25. -25. -28. -33. -41. -48. -50. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 17.6 65.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/20/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 903.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 2.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/20/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/20/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 54 43( 74) 44( 85) 34( 90) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 90 88( 99) 85(100) 67(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 124 130 130 129 122 112 105 106 104 105 101 96 88 81 79 71 18HR AGO 140 139 145 145 144 137 127 120 121 119 120 116 111 103 96 94 86 12HR AGO 140 137 136 136 135 128 118 111 112 110 111 107 102 94 87 85 77 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 129 122 112 105 106 104 105 101 96 88 81 79 71 NOW 140 131 125 122 121 114 104 97 98 96 97 93 88 80 73 71 63 IN 6HR 140 124 115 109 106 102 92 85 86 84 85 81 76 68 61 59 51 IN 12HR 140 124 130 121 115 111 101 94 95 93 94 90 85 77 70 68 60