* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/20/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 57 55 54 49 45 40 31 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 57 55 54 49 45 40 31 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 58 57 55 53 49 47 46 45 42 39 34 30 27 24 25 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 14 14 13 14 15 11 22 27 40 39 47 53 57 59 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 0 1 -1 -4 -1 -4 -5 -3 -9 -8 -3 -7 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 211 218 230 231 234 224 238 250 274 290 286 292 291 278 250 249 242 SST (C) 25.6 24.7 23.6 22.7 22.0 22.7 23.7 23.8 23.8 23.7 24.0 24.4 24.6 21.9 21.7 20.2 17.2 POT. INT. (KT) 109 101 94 89 84 86 91 92 92 91 93 96 101 86 84 79 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 90 85 80 76 72 72 75 75 76 76 77 79 84 75 73 70 63 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.6 -52.4 -53.2 -52.5 -52.2 -50.8 -49.9 -49.3 -51.6 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 2.2 1.9 1.2 1.4 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 3 5 5 2 1 0 1 1 4 2 4 2 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 50 51 50 47 45 41 42 46 48 49 47 48 50 51 53 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 37 37 36 36 32 31 28 24 21 17 12 10 7 4 2 8 850 MB ENV VOR 66 56 70 66 44 17 11 12 -16 -42 -93 -90 11 18 30 126 113 200 MB DIV 55 60 43 30 24 -4 16 -13 -19 -12 -20 -14 22 43 42 70 49 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 -1 -1 -1 0 1 1 2 1 2 4 0 19 9 12 LAND (KM) 352 340 306 292 265 290 323 336 350 358 368 376 377 180 40 0 -20 LAT (DEG N) 37.6 38.2 38.7 39.1 39.5 39.6 39.4 39.2 39.0 38.8 38.6 38.4 38.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.1 70.6 70.0 69.3 68.7 67.9 67.6 67.7 67.8 68.1 68.4 68.9 69.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 5 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 7 9 7 9 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -24. -26. -29. -31. -34. -36. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -4. -8. -14. -21. -27. -33. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -22. -28. -35. -42. -45. -48. -50. -50. -41. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -11. -15. -20. -29. -39. -51. -63. -72. -82. -93.-100. -99. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 37.6 71.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/20/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 365.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/20/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/20/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 59 57 55 54 49 45 40 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 57 55 54 49 45 40 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 54 53 48 44 39 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 44 40 35 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT