* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/19/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 145 147 147 145 143 138 131 120 113 105 104 104 106 102 98 91 90 V (KT) LAND 145 147 147 145 119 125 117 107 100 92 91 90 92 89 85 77 77 V (KT) LGEM 145 144 139 134 111 119 117 115 111 105 100 101 97 93 85 77 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 5 6 7 4 6 12 8 15 12 18 8 18 16 19 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 0 -3 1 5 7 8 6 1 1 3 5 2 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 110 146 238 299 348 285 312 257 244 235 225 247 284 287 309 302 230 SST (C) 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.8 29.6 29.6 29.4 28.9 27.8 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 154 153 154 154 150 152 152 148 148 161 161 158 149 132 133 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 146 144 145 144 138 138 138 133 132 142 140 137 127 109 110 108 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -50.5 -51.2 -50.6 -50.8 -50.0 -50.2 -49.1 -49.6 -49.3 -49.2 -48.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 57 57 55 58 61 67 68 70 65 65 60 66 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 28 28 29 29 31 31 34 35 39 41 44 44 45 43 45 850 MB ENV VOR 37 46 49 47 48 56 58 47 50 47 52 54 58 69 78 98 119 200 MB DIV 105 84 36 24 19 -1 65 69 85 97 137 73 66 30 54 17 65 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 0 0 -3 3 10 18 15 18 21 13 12 9 11 -1 LAND (KM) 289 195 101 9 -11 95 90 153 278 441 581 713 733 665 640 562 498 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.4 19.3 20.1 21.1 22.3 23.8 25.3 26.8 28.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.6 64.4 65.1 65.9 66.6 67.9 69.1 70.1 71.0 71.8 72.3 72.6 72.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 62 66 64 60 53 50 51 61 66 62 42 44 39 35 20 20 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -13. -25. -39. -52. -64. -71. -75. -78. -83. -87. -90. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 19. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 6. 7. 12. 14. 17. 15. 15. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 0. -2. -7. -14. -25. -32. -40. -41. -41. -39. -43. -47. -54. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 145. LAT, LON: 16.6 63.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/19/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 145.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 792.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.02 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 1.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 6.2% 4.0% 1.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 6.5% 5.3% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 3.8% 2.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/19/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/19/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 66 74( 91) 0( 91) 38( 95) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 96 99(100) 0(100) 94(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 145 147 147 145 119 125 117 107 100 92 91 90 92 89 85 77 77 18HR AGO 145 144 144 142 116 122 114 104 97 89 88 87 89 86 82 74 74 12HR AGO 145 142 141 139 113 119 111 101 94 86 85 84 86 83 79 71 71 6HR AGO 145 139 136 135 109 115 107 97 90 82 81 80 82 79 75 67 67 NOW 145 136 130 127 126 132 124 114 107 99 98 97 99 96 92 84 84 IN 6HR 145 147 138 132 129 124 116 106 99 91 90 89 91 88 84 76 76 IN 12HR 145 147 147 138 132 128 120 110 103 95 94 93 95 92 88 80 80