* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/19/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 148 150 148 146 141 134 128 117 111 104 104 106 107 108 103 97 V (KT) LAND 140 148 150 148 146 141 128 121 111 104 97 97 100 101 101 96 91 V (KT) LGEM 140 149 150 148 144 133 120 116 112 109 105 102 103 100 93 87 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 5 3 6 6 10 7 10 11 16 10 22 18 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 1 1 4 1 3 5 6 3 2 2 0 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 72 79 91 70 95 329 23 314 296 269 232 250 249 280 275 293 313 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.7 29.2 29.7 29.0 29.3 29.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 161 161 158 151 153 151 152 154 146 154 164 151 154 150 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 153 154 153 149 141 142 139 139 140 131 137 147 132 129 126 111 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -50.7 -50.7 -50.2 -50.4 -49.9 -49.7 -49.3 -49.2 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 62 60 59 61 58 62 63 65 63 63 66 64 66 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 29 29 30 33 31 32 33 34 37 42 43 44 47 48 48 850 MB ENV VOR 21 26 28 36 37 48 60 56 65 52 73 55 70 56 76 77 107 200 MB DIV 102 106 73 87 62 39 9 42 76 78 86 62 101 36 45 29 26 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 0 2 4 4 2 3 12 16 18 9 11 8 11 8 LAND (KM) 500 501 409 322 236 57 22 94 94 190 333 469 568 863 801 739 677 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.8 18.7 19.6 20.5 21.5 22.8 24.3 25.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.1 61.9 62.6 63.3 64.0 65.4 66.9 68.3 69.6 70.8 71.8 72.6 73.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 10 9 4 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 63 62 58 61 65 61 49 51 53 62 59 49 61 40 50 41 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. -0. -2. -9. -19. -33. -44. -54. -62. -66. -68. -72. -76. -78. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 7. 6. 3. 1. -0. 2. 3. -0. -2. -7. -9. -6. -4. -2. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 4. 4. 6. 9. 15. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 10. 8. 6. 1. -6. -12. -23. -29. -36. -36. -34. -33. -32. -37. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 15.3 61.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/19/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -45.0 to 30.0 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.0 33.3 to 3.1 1.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 689.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.14 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.57 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 48.5% 36.7% 30.7% 18.0% 4.9% 5.0% 5.8% 0.8% Bayesian: 10.1% 1.4% 3.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 19.5% 12.7% 11.4% 6.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/19/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/19/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 54 78( 90) 71( 97) 56( 99) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 97 99(100) 99(100) 97(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 148 150 148 146 141 128 121 111 104 97 97 100 101 101 96 91 18HR AGO 140 139 141 139 137 132 119 112 102 95 88 88 91 92 92 87 82 12HR AGO 140 137 136 134 132 127 114 107 97 90 83 83 86 87 87 82 77 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 128 123 110 103 93 86 79 79 82 83 83 78 73 NOW 140 131 125 122 121 116 103 96 86 79 72 72 75 76 76 71 66 IN 6HR 140 148 139 133 130 127 114 107 97 90 83 83 86 87 87 82 77 IN 12HR 140 148 150 141 135 131 118 111 101 94 87 87 90 91 91 86 81