* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/18/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 118 123 126 128 127 126 122 117 110 104 102 103 104 103 102 102 V (KT) LAND 110 118 123 126 128 127 108 112 108 101 95 93 94 95 94 93 92 V (KT) LGEM 110 120 125 127 128 126 106 111 111 108 103 98 97 97 91 87 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 0 2 1 3 8 4 9 10 9 17 15 23 18 24 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 10 7 6 2 3 3 6 6 5 6 0 -1 -4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 80 124 291 157 9 295 13 311 310 284 262 251 239 262 267 290 304 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.8 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.3 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 161 161 161 153 154 153 152 154 149 147 160 154 153 155 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 151 155 154 154 144 144 142 140 140 134 131 142 135 129 130 125 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.2 -51.3 -50.5 -51.3 -50.5 -51.1 -50.2 -50.8 -49.7 -49.3 -48.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 9 9 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 65 59 60 63 60 62 63 60 61 63 67 66 68 65 68 66 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 24 27 28 29 31 30 31 30 32 35 38 40 41 45 48 850 MB ENV VOR 12 16 22 32 34 45 50 53 60 56 59 51 61 53 71 76 108 200 MB DIV 103 92 81 78 86 43 48 32 88 65 82 50 100 62 55 42 49 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 0 0 3 3 3 9 15 16 14 9 7 9 3 LAND (KM) 460 495 502 415 328 140 -22 85 90 151 267 403 495 746 797 773 661 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.4 17.3 18.2 19.1 20.1 21.1 22.2 23.5 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.4 61.1 61.9 62.6 63.3 64.8 66.2 67.7 69.1 70.3 71.3 72.1 72.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 9 9 5 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 60 63 64 59 60 65 57 50 51 61 61 58 50 36 39 41 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -13. -18. -24. -28. -30. -33. -36. -39. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 3. 4. 3. 4. 8. 10. 12. 12. 15. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 13. 16. 18. 17. 16. 12. 7. 0. -6. -8. -7. -6. -7. -8. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 14.9 60.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/18/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -45.0 to 30.0 1.00 19.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.8 25.9 to 2.2 1.00 9.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.42 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.95 6.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.23 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 517.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.34 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.13 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.58 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 5.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 39.7% 56.3% 47.4% 36.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 53.3% 60.2% 51.8% 46.3% 24.2% 22.4% 11.3% 3.5% Bayesian: 61.4% 39.1% 57.1% 25.6% 18.0% 5.3% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 51.5% 51.9% 52.1% 36.0% 16.8% 9.2% 3.8% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/18/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/18/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 35( 54) 43( 74) 41( 84) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 85 86( 98) 89(100) 79(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 118 123 126 128 127 108 112 108 101 95 93 94 95 94 93 92 18HR AGO 110 109 114 117 119 118 99 103 99 92 86 84 85 86 85 84 83 12HR AGO 110 107 106 109 111 110 91 95 91 84 78 76 77 78 77 76 75 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 102 101 82 86 82 75 69 67 68 69 68 67 66 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 90 71 75 71 64 58 56 57 58 57 56 55 IN 6HR 110 118 109 103 100 100 81 85 81 74 68 66 67 68 67 66 65 IN 12HR 110 118 123 114 108 104 85 89 85 78 72 70 71 72 71 70 69