* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/18/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 63 61 60 62 59 54 46 40 35 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 66 63 61 60 62 59 54 46 40 35 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 66 63 61 60 58 54 51 48 46 47 47 46 43 40 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 36 28 28 29 20 20 14 19 11 8 6 12 21 15 23 28 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 0 -7 -5 -2 -4 -2 -1 -2 -1 -3 -2 0 -1 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 237 226 216 236 247 198 223 226 211 220 256 298 312 276 302 288 269 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.6 24.9 22.7 21.6 21.9 22.7 23.5 24.1 24.9 23.1 26.7 26.4 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 126 124 130 103 88 82 82 86 91 95 102 89 118 116 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 107 104 103 106 86 75 71 70 72 75 78 84 75 94 95 78 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -51.7 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.0 1.1 0.6 1.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 4 4 4 3 5 1 1 0 2 3 3 3 5 2 700-500 MB RH 60 57 56 57 56 53 49 41 38 38 45 47 50 40 47 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 37 37 36 38 37 34 30 27 25 22 19 15 12 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 66 65 64 59 59 63 73 42 22 21 11 -6 -36 -61 -87 -92 -59 200 MB DIV 61 54 36 11 38 49 48 25 0 6 -21 -19 -35 -47 -21 -9 21 700-850 TADV 24 19 9 19 15 1 3 -2 -1 -1 2 0 0 0 2 1 4 LAND (KM) 479 439 415 413 399 343 280 241 257 294 336 381 422 242 424 388 187 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 34.3 35.1 35.9 36.7 38.1 39.1 39.7 39.8 39.5 39.1 38.6 38.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.2 71.2 71.2 71.1 71.1 70.6 69.8 68.8 68.2 68.0 67.9 68.0 68.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 2 2 2 2 5 3 3 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 8 18 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -21. -27. -30. -34. -37. -41. -42. -43. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. 1. -1. -5. -11. -16. -20. -25. -30. -34. -37. -39. -42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -10. -8. -11. -16. -24. -30. -35. -40. -50. -58. -67. -72. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 33.5 71.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/18/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 340.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.06 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/18/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/18/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 66 63 61 60 62 59 54 46 40 35 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 66 64 63 65 62 57 49 43 38 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 63 65 62 57 49 43 38 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 61 58 53 45 39 34 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT