* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMA EP172017 09/18/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 41 40 36 32 26 23 22 19 19 20 20 21 21 20 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 41 40 36 32 26 23 22 19 19 20 20 21 21 20 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 41 39 35 31 27 24 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 4 2 4 7 4 4 11 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 2 2 3 6 1 5 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 312 320 328 295 308 337 354 241 177 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.6 26.0 25.3 24.6 24.1 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 136 135 133 127 120 113 105 100 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 40 37 35 33 31 31 29 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 9 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -1 5 1 -6 0 -6 7 8 18 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -19 -25 -29 -33 -8 -6 -23 -16 -28 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 3 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 -20 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 242 265 294 322 343 342 338 344 328 291 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.5 21.6 21.7 21.8 22.2 22.7 23.2 23.7 24.2 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.1 112.5 112.9 113.3 114.1 114.7 115.2 115.3 115.1 114.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -13. -18. -18. -18. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -19. -22. -23. -26. -26. -25. -25. -24. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.3 111.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172017 NORMA 09/18/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.58 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.77 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.04 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 432.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.38 -2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.52 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.19 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.49 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 20.9% 19.3% 15.0% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 7.3% 6.9% 5.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172017 NORMA 09/18/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##