* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTIS EP152017 09/18/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 81 73 65 51 40 30 25 23 22 21 22 25 29 34 36 V (KT) LAND 90 87 81 73 65 51 40 30 25 23 22 21 22 25 29 34 36 V (KT) LGEM 90 87 79 71 62 49 40 33 28 24 22 21 20 20 20 20 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 10 11 8 11 9 11 4 6 4 10 7 6 6 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 4 5 4 3 8 5 5 -2 -4 -8 -4 -3 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 255 255 229 193 177 173 137 131 161 231 243 262 235 262 238 189 N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.6 25.3 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.6 26.3 26.7 27.2 27.6 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 113 112 112 112 118 125 130 135 139 144 144 147 150 152 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 48 47 50 52 48 51 49 50 50 51 52 57 63 65 65 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 16 14 13 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 0 5 3 6 0 -2 -8 7 24 38 33 41 19 18 6 N/A 200 MB DIV 42 43 32 57 49 37 46 0 -11 0 35 34 26 8 1 10 N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 2 0 0 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 0 -1 0 N/A LAND (KM) 1642 1617 1592 1602 1611 1677 1801 1941 2107 2272 2133 1998 1876 1937 1874 1773 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.3 18.7 18.0 17.3 16.6 15.9 15.2 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.3 127.4 127.5 127.7 127.9 128.6 129.6 130.7 132.1 133.5 135.0 136.5 137.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 2 3 4 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 9 13 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 6 9 17 14 21 22 26 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -8. -14. -19. -24. -28. -30. -32. -33. -34. -34. -34. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -17. -25. -39. -50. -60. -65. -67. -68. -69. -67. -65. -61. -56. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.3 127.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 OTIS 09/18/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 667.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 OTIS 09/18/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##