* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/18/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 86 93 98 103 108 110 112 113 109 106 102 102 101 103 100 97 V (KT) LAND 80 86 93 98 103 108 110 98 103 100 96 93 93 92 94 91 87 V (KT) LGEM 80 86 91 96 100 108 115 101 105 107 107 105 102 102 97 91 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 4 1 2 3 3 6 5 8 10 7 11 15 19 9 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 2 5 6 4 5 4 3 7 7 7 5 -3 0 1 6 SHEAR DIR 247 222 72 145 209 88 277 14 337 321 271 266 248 229 263 288 305 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.1 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.4 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 158 158 159 159 152 156 152 152 157 154 153 158 160 157 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 149 152 151 152 151 143 146 141 140 142 138 142 143 135 133 129 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -50.9 -51.1 -50.3 -51.0 -50.4 -50.4 -50.1 -50.1 -49.4 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 60 61 62 62 63 60 63 65 70 69 67 61 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 24 25 26 27 30 32 34 34 34 36 39 40 43 44 44 850 MB ENV VOR 15 12 20 25 27 40 46 57 62 64 66 68 65 53 68 66 62 200 MB DIV 68 74 95 57 52 95 49 45 23 85 60 105 76 84 51 59 12 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -1 -5 -2 0 4 5 4 7 13 18 13 12 18 11 12 LAND (KM) 455 458 480 523 475 307 134 -11 69 49 98 200 294 718 720 731 702 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.6 17.4 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.6 21.6 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.0 59.8 60.6 61.3 62.0 63.4 64.8 66.3 67.7 69.0 70.1 71.1 72.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 6 7 12 13 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 58 58 61 63 60 62 65 60 51 50 57 60 58 36 43 39 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10. 13. 13. 17. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 7. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 18. 23. 28. 30. 32. 33. 30. 26. 22. 22. 21. 23. 20. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.4 59.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/18/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 15.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.99 8.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.41 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.86 6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 4.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.36 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 369.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.51 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.41 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.49 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 5.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 32.2% 55.5% 45.0% 36.2% 13.8% 44.6% 35.2% 31.0% Logistic: 24.9% 45.7% 33.9% 32.7% 19.0% 31.9% 22.3% 10.6% Bayesian: 36.1% 78.7% 70.5% 41.7% 30.7% 63.8% 31.4% 4.4% Consensus: 31.1% 59.9% 49.8% 36.9% 21.2% 46.8% 29.6% 15.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/18/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/18/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 14( 20) 25( 40) 28( 57) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 21 38( 51) 59( 80) 60( 92) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 86 93 98 103 108 110 98 103 100 96 93 93 92 94 91 87 18HR AGO 80 79 86 91 96 101 103 91 96 93 89 86 86 85 87 84 80 12HR AGO 80 77 76 81 86 91 93 81 86 83 79 76 76 75 77 74 70 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 75 80 82 70 75 72 68 65 65 64 66 63 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 86 77 71 68 69 71 59 64 61 57 54 54 53 55 52 48 IN 12HR 80 86 93 84 78 74 76 64 69 66 62 59 59 58 60 57 53