* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTIS EP152017 09/18/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 107 106 101 92 71 53 38 28 23 22 19 20 23 25 27 28 V (KT) LAND 100 107 106 101 92 71 53 38 28 23 22 19 20 23 25 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 100 105 100 90 80 62 48 39 32 27 23 21 20 20 20 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 6 3 5 10 13 13 19 11 5 6 6 12 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 2 4 7 3 5 6 7 2 0 -3 -6 -6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 267 267 234 186 146 141 119 144 188 201 260 228 248 270 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.2 25.2 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.3 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 124 119 116 114 112 113 120 126 132 136 143 147 144 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 48 52 53 55 54 54 54 52 51 53 56 62 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 17 17 15 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 16 2 5 4 -5 -4 -12 -7 2 26 36 36 18 12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 53 43 37 51 63 64 24 1 10 16 34 40 27 18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 3 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -1 -2 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1688 1661 1635 1625 1616 1650 1737 1862 2012 2181 2204 2076 1954 1703 1670 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.2 18.9 18.3 17.7 17.1 16.4 15.7 15.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.2 127.3 127.4 127.6 127.7 128.2 129.0 130.0 131.3 132.8 134.2 135.6 137.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 3 5 6 7 7 8 8 12 8 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 6 14 18 10 9 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -17. -24. -30. -36. -40. -43. -44. -44. -44. -45. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 10. 14. 14. 13. 9. 4. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -17. -20. -20. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 6. 1. -8. -29. -47. -62. -72. -77. -78. -81. -80. -77. -75. -73. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.6 127.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 OTIS 09/18/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -20.0 to 40.0 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 698.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.05 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.9% 4.7% 23.0% 4.3% 9.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 1.6% 7.7% 1.4% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 OTIS 09/18/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##