* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTIS EP152017 09/17/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 56 58 57 53 48 43 38 35 35 36 36 39 41 43 45 V (KT) LAND 50 54 56 58 57 53 48 43 38 35 35 36 36 39 41 43 45 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 56 56 55 50 42 36 31 27 24 23 22 22 23 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 3 5 4 6 5 11 12 13 7 5 3 3 4 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 -1 6 5 0 0 4 6 3 -2 -6 -4 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 133 205 185 207 215 165 119 107 115 132 144 129 302 337 290 292 269 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.8 26.1 26.7 27.1 27.6 28.2 28.1 27.4 27.6 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 130 127 123 118 117 119 123 130 135 140 146 144 137 140 144 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -52.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.7 -53.6 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 52 50 55 53 52 53 53 52 52 57 59 57 59 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 16 15 14 12 11 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -9 -7 9 1 -1 -4 -12 -18 -20 -9 21 30 27 23 18 13 200 MB DIV 11 15 29 48 34 44 52 46 17 9 2 22 10 1 2 1 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1799 1775 1750 1719 1688 1651 1676 1769 1880 2030 2214 2154 1981 1828 1657 1497 1333 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.5 18.6 18.2 17.8 17.2 16.6 15.9 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.3 127.4 127.4 127.5 127.5 127.6 128.0 128.8 129.8 131.1 132.8 134.8 136.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 4 2 3 5 6 8 9 10 9 7 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 4 6 9 19 12 5 6 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -3. -5. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 7. 3. -2. -7. -12. -15. -15. -14. -14. -11. -9. -7. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.3 127.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 OTIS 09/17/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.47 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.90 8.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 319.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.52 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 6.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.65 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.37 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.7% 37.1% 33.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.6% 20.7% 21.2% 4.9% 5.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.0% 19.4% 18.3% 1.6% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 OTIS 09/17/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##