* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTIS EP152017 09/17/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 48 48 48 46 43 38 35 33 32 34 35 36 37 39 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 48 48 48 46 43 38 35 33 32 34 35 36 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 48 49 47 42 36 31 27 23 21 19 18 17 17 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 2 3 6 7 7 14 18 19 20 9 2 5 3 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -3 -1 -3 4 4 3 4 3 7 5 0 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 145 188 255 229 218 250 147 113 107 113 129 156 171 267 256 223 250 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.5 26.6 27.0 27.1 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 135 136 134 129 125 125 127 132 134 140 142 141 140 140 139 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.9 -52.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 52 53 54 52 53 51 54 57 52 51 51 50 51 47 48 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 11 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 3 10 6 -5 -9 0 2 -4 -9 -9 7 13 40 48 46 31 29 200 MB DIV -21 -8 26 30 29 44 53 56 62 44 12 19 24 25 18 15 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1825 1820 1815 1794 1774 1719 1711 1751 1830 1963 2106 2274 2175 1990 1892 1746 1618 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.5 17.9 17.9 17.7 17.2 16.7 16.1 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.2 127.3 127.4 127.5 127.5 127.5 127.8 128.3 129.1 130.3 131.6 133.1 134.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 5 7 7 8 8 6 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 7 6 3 2 1 3 7 10 10 11 18 18 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 3. -2. -5. -7. -8. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.9 127.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152017 OTIS 09/17/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.62 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.88 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.24 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.61 -3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.59 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.44 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 28.4% 20.8% 20.6% 14.0% 20.6% 22.2% 0.0% Logistic: 9.2% 26.5% 16.9% 6.8% 6.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 18.4% 12.6% 9.1% 6.7% 7.2% 7.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152017 OTIS 09/17/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##