* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/17/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 51 56 63 70 84 88 94 97 96 99 96 96 96 96 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 51 56 63 70 84 88 94 97 87 90 87 87 88 87 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 47 50 56 63 74 89 102 107 100 101 97 94 92 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 5 4 3 11 7 4 2 9 3 7 10 16 16 18 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 6 6 1 0 3 3 0 1 3 3 1 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 290 257 258 322 351 1 30 39 356 339 28 301 271 270 238 264 235 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.1 29.6 29.8 29.7 28.9 29.4 29.1 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 159 155 157 154 156 157 159 152 161 165 162 149 158 152 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 161 159 154 154 149 149 149 151 143 152 154 148 135 144 136 143 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -51.8 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 12 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 58 61 60 61 63 62 59 59 58 59 61 62 68 72 70 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 21 22 21 21 27 26 29 30 28 29 27 30 33 35 850 MB ENV VOR 23 14 9 12 14 12 11 23 35 29 45 42 47 32 44 23 49 200 MB DIV 69 87 69 76 73 77 56 59 47 32 9 40 55 54 74 77 103 700-850 TADV 2 6 7 1 -3 -3 -5 0 0 0 0 3 4 12 6 10 16 LAND (KM) 740 736 650 574 513 470 491 475 313 140 0 54 33 133 233 396 562 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.6 15.2 15.9 16.5 17.3 18.0 18.8 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.1 54.3 55.5 56.5 57.5 59.1 60.6 62.0 63.4 64.8 66.3 67.9 69.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 10 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 6 7 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 47 48 50 56 68 59 61 62 64 71 68 59 57 59 64 60 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 31. 33. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 8. 7. 10. 11. 8. 9. 5. 7. 9. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 23. 30. 44. 48. 54. 58. 56. 59. 56. 56. 56. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.3 53.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/17/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 7.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.92 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.37 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.71 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.53 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.65 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.89 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.52 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.59 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 64% is 12.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 42.6% 26.5% 11.5% 7.0% 25.9% 33.8% 63.9% Logistic: 10.6% 40.3% 29.1% 20.7% 9.1% 17.3% 14.4% 16.6% Bayesian: 1.4% 14.3% 10.4% 0.3% 0.6% 8.9% 35.6% 13.3% Consensus: 6.5% 32.4% 22.0% 10.8% 5.6% 17.3% 27.9% 31.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/17/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/17/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 47 51 56 63 70 84 88 94 97 87 90 87 87 88 87 18HR AGO 40 39 43 47 52 59 66 80 84 90 93 83 86 83 83 84 83 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 45 52 59 73 77 83 86 76 79 76 76 77 76 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 42 49 63 67 73 76 66 69 66 66 67 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT